LOSING STEAM AS ANTICIPATED. Alumina Price Rally Capped by Oversupply Outlook
September 20, 2023
KEY MESSAGES
Alumina price rally losses steam after approaching the upper end of their multi-month trading range. Prices had rallied after demand spiked in China’s Yunnan and an export arbitrage opportunity temporarily opened.
Increasing world alumina production to new record highs, deterring price increases.
Still, higher energy costs and stocking activity ahead of China holiday have lately supported alumina prices.
China’s alumina self-sufficiency is paving the way for the largest world alumina oversupply condition in decades, which HARBOR expects to emerge as soon as...
HARBOR expects Australian alumina spot prices to retreat toward $... per mton (fob) before 2023 ends and average $... per mton in 2024.