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MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM PRICE FORECASTS

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.
LATEST ISSUE :
Demand Contraction, Booming Production, Growing Inventories
Global primary demand contracted in Q1 2019 mainly on the back of contractions in Europe and Asia, and as China is growing at the weakest pace in a decade.
Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.
LATEST ISSUE :
Albras' Restart to Add More Production to Booming Supply
World’s primary aluminum production run-rates stabilized in Q1 2019, as production gains accelerated in China and counterbalanced ROW’s weak start of the year.

2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

Aluminum Price Outlook (monthly)
Aluminum Price Outlook (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.
LATEST ISSUE :
Prices Decline as Expected, Have Not Bottomed Out Yet
As HARBOR correctly forecasted a year ago, LME prices have fallen again to the $1,770 per mton support threshold. In late-April, LME 3M aluminum prices broke away from the $1,850-$1,930 per mton range-trading zone amid: a) renewed concerns about world demand, b) massive inventory inflows at Asian LME warehouses (300 kmton in two weeks), c) alumina spot prices plummeting 16% m/m, and d) the US dollar strengthening toward fresh two-year highs.
Aluminum Strategic Buying Signals (occasional)
Aluminum Strategic Buying Signals (occasional)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
A one-page report with the most relevant intelligence to evaluate the attractiveness of locking in LME aluminum prices at a given point in time. It will help you assess price value, buying risks, and timing to execute.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR’s Model Signals...
HARBOR’s model suggests locking inat least half of open metal needs as...

3. ALUMINUM REGIONAL PREMIUMS (DAILY)

Daily Aluminum LME & Premiums Intel (includes Alerts)
Sample-Daily Aluminum LME & Premiums
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and off-grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.
LATEST ISSUE :
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices come back from below $1,770 per mton (jury still out); Chinese aluminum export boom continues
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive, in-a-nutshell summary of the most significant world’s aluminum premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBOR’s relevant intelligence, premium assessment movements and analysis by region, including 1020, purity and VAP premiums.
LATEST ISSUE :
What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?
USA: CME MW duty-paid financials for April–May at a three-week high; LME MW financials waiting to gain traction.| EUROPE: European P1020 premiums tick up, continue to trade within their long-term equilibrium levels.
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (every semester)
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (every semester)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Executive report with the latest intelligence, analysis, outlook and forecasts on aluminum ingot and billet premiums around the globe. Gives you quarterly premiums forecasts for each region and a trade map to better identify sourcing/selling opportunities and premiums risks.
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Premiums Landscape & 2018 Outlook - World Compendium
World Aluminum Premiums in 2018...

4. US ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS (MONTHLY)

US Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence (monthly)
US Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, cansheet, autosheet & foil). Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the a
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Autobody Sheet Prices Will Likely Rise On Insufficient US Supply
US conversion prices for aluminum autobody sheet are increasing on new contracts as the market suffers from insufficient supply.

5. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intel (weekly)
Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intel (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
USA MARKET: Class UBC discounts below MWTP hovering between 42 and 44 cent/lb.
Painted siding is being aggressively exported from the US East Coast into India. Intel from the ground has confirmed painted siding export pricing at 63 cent/lb FAS (delivered in container to port).
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.
LATEST ISSUE :
US MARKET: Determining accurate scrap discounts based on actual paid primary prices.
Secondaries are showing more flexibility. Just as primary smelters over many years of history have expanded from P1020 sows to a variety of value added products, the same is starting to emerge in the secondary sector.

6. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices — both globally and regionally.
LATEST ISSUE :
Expecting a World Surplus Despite Temporary Production Cuts in China
Australia alumina spot price inches up amid news of temporary production curtailments in China. Prices stand at $383 per mton FOB, up 6% m/m.

7. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q1 2019)
Q2 2019 report will be issued in the first half of July.
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q1 2019)
Q2 2019 report will be issued in the first half of July.
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q1 2019)
Q2 2019 report will be issued in the first half of July.