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ALUMINUM MARKET OUTLOOK & PRICE FORECASTS

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

Aluminum Industry Outlook on the Global Market

The major sectors of the global aluminum market are broken down across several different industries. The three industries that dominate the majority of global aluminum demand include:

  • Packaging: The rise of processed food and beverages in developing countries is increasing rapidly. As a result, the need for aluminum packaging is growing. In this area, aluminum faces competition from plastic and glass.

  • Automotive: Aluminum is a major player in the automotive world, as manufacturers look to replace steel with aluminum whenever possible. Aluminum is much more lightweight and can dramatically increase fuel economy.

  • Construction: Which country uses the most aluminum? The major demand for aluminum comes from China, which ran a major aluminum trade surplus about eight years ago. China is responsible for about 60 percent of world demand for aluminum, mostly for construction.

Why is Aluminum Market Intelligence Important?

Access to accurate aluminum market research and trends is critical for those who work in industries that rely on the production and sourcing of aluminum products. Daily aluminum prices can shift, and if you don’t have access to up-to-date aluminum intelligence reports and market outlook, you can fall behind your competitors. With a market outlook and aluminum price subscription from HARBOR, you don't have wonder if prices will go up or down. Our daily market and intelligence reports, as well as longer-term forecasts, provide comprehensive insights on factors that affect aluminum trading prices so that you stay ahead of the competition.

Get Aluminum Market Outlook

Explore Our Market Outlook Reporting Options

We offer a variety of daily, weekly and monthly aluminum outlook report. Explore our reporting options below to stay ahead of industry trends.


1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Aluminum Intelligence Report (monthly)
A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Availability to Exceed Demand in 2022-2023
The world aluminum market is set to feel well supplied from 2H 2022 on
Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.
LATEST ISSUE :
World Smelting Expansion/Restart Wave Has Kicked in
Chinese aluminum smelting restarts have started to kick-in as energy tightness eases. We see 2 million mtpy of Chinese capacity restarts through 2022.

2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.
LATEST ISSUE :
LME Prices On Track to Complete a Cyclical Top Formation
LME aluminum prices are re-visiting the $... per mton zone as they continue to complete a cyclical top formation.

3. ALUMINUM WORLD PRODUCT PREMIUMS (DAILY)

Daily Aluminum Lme & World Product Premiums Intelligence (daily)
Sample-Daily Aluminum LME & World Product Premiums Intelligence
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and o -grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.
LATEST ISSUE :
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME price down as fear spike activates bearish signal; Double-digit LME Cash–3M backwardation
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (weekly)
Aluminum Premiums Outlook
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive, in-a-nutshell summary of the most significant world’s aluminum premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBOR’s relevant intelligence, premium assessment movements and analysis by region, including P1020, purity and VAP premiums.
LATEST ISSUE :
What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?
US MW PREMIUM ALERT. TWO-MONTH HIGHS: MW premium gaps up to 30.95-32.00 cent/lb (From January 13). | US BILLET ALERT. NEW RECORDS: US spot billet upcharge jumps to a record high of 36.0 c/lb (From January 13). | US BILLET ALERT. WEST COAST FRENZY: West Coast spot billet upcharge spikes to 42.0 c/lb (From January 14).
Alerts & Special Analysis On Latest/Exclusive Aluminum Market And Product Premiums Intel (several per week)
Alerts-Special-Analysis-Aluminum-Market-Premiums
REPORT DESCRIPTION
On-time, expert intelligence analysis of any key development occurring across the aluminum value chain. These alerts will provide you with time-sensitive actionable intelligence on key industry and market developments, price movements and outlook, and premium activity across the globe. Alerts are segmented by region, type of material, industry sector and market segments, warning specific stakeholders in specific areas of the aluminum value chain. HARBOR's Aluminum App send users a timely signal when any alert has been released.
LATEST ISSUE :
EUROPEAN BILLET ALERT.
SPOT JUMPS AGAIN: European spot billet premiums jump to as high as $... per mton. Q2 contractual tier billet premium differential widening.
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts (weekly)
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the European Billet market by relevant country. Offering intelligence, unparalleled insight and detailed visibility into billet premiums by country and by type of supplier, transactional activity, trade flows, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills key market commentary and field intelligence to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the different European billet markets. Spanish and Italian versions available.
LATEST ISSUE :
EUROPEAN BILLET UPDATE.
ANOTHER SIX-YEAR HIGH: Europe P1020 premiums rise further amid a compilation of bullish factors.

4. NORTH AMERICA ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS (MONTHLY)

North America Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report (monthly)
North America Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, can sheet, auto sheet & foil).Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the aluminum flat products market field.
LATEST ISSUE :
The Extremely Tight North American Cansheet Market
The North America cansheet market will remain extremely tight in 2022 as imports will need to increase by nearly ... % after hitting record high levels in 2021

5. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel
KEEPS GETTING TIGHTER: Discounts on new bare 6063 scrap narrow even further. | UBC SPOT DEMAND AND PRICES JUMP. | PRESSURED UP: UBC prices up as domestic consumers and export market fight for units.
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.
LATEST ISSUE :
North America Scrap Lights
US: THE EVER CHANGING SCRAP MARKET | Mexico: Net aluminum scrap exports to fall sharply in 2021
European Secondary and Scrap Aluminum Intelligence (weekly)
EUROPEAN-SECONDARY-AND-SCRAP-ALUMINUM-INTELLIGENCE
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Europe ś secondary and scrap aluminum markets by relevant country and their interaction with the major regional hubs like North America and Asia. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
DIFFERENT SUBREGIONAL TRENDS
RISING PRICES: Scrap and secondary alloy prices increase across the board

6. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices—both globally and regionally.
LATEST ISSUE :
Bull Market Not Over Yet; Correction Seen Starting Before End of Q2 2022
Alumina spot prices fell in November and are down so far December after a $... per mton rally that took place during the August-October period. Australia spot prices have fallen to...

7. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2021)
Q4 2021 report will be issued in the first half January 2022.
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2021)
Q4 2021 report will be issued in the first half January 2022.
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Repor (Data for Q3 2021)
Q4 2021 report will be issued in the first half January 2022.