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Aluminum Market Forecast and Industry Outlook Reports
HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum market. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum market outlook and industry price forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market
Get Up to Date Aluminum Market Forecasting From Harbor
At HARBOR, we are a market intelligence firm that specializes in the aluminum industry and its supply chain. While other firms research numerous commodities, our entire focus is only on aluminum. Deep and across. We gather, develop and analyze aluminum industry data and market intelligence across the supply chain and world regions to provide our clients with the best understanding of the competitive landscape and outlook.
Why is Aluminum Market Intelligence Important?
Access to accurate aluminum market research and trends is critical for those who work in industries that rely on the production and sourcing of aluminum products. Daily aluminum prices can shift, and if you don’t have access to up-to-date aluminum intelligence reports and market outlook, you can fall behind your competitors. With a market outlook and aluminum price subscription from HARBOR, you don't have wonder if prices will go up or down. Our daily market and intelligence reports, as well as longer-term forecasts, provide comprehensive insights on factors that affect aluminum trading prices so that you stay ahead of the competition.
HARBORʼs consulting team has on average over 25 years of experience in the aluminum industry. Each Senior Consultant has several decades of specialized aluminum industry experience in upstream, downstream, and/or trading of aluminum. We have industry and market specialists for bauxite and alumina, primary aluminum products, flat rolled products, extrusions, scrap and secondary markets, cans, automotive, construction, industrials and consumer durables. We advise government agencies and render expert testimony in legal disputes and arbitration cases on matters related to the aluminum industry and its various markets.
Aluminum Industry Outlook on the Global Market
The major sectors of the global aluminum market are broken down across several different industries. The three industries that dominate the majority of global aluminum demand include:
- Packaging: The rise of processed food and beverages in developing countries is increasing rapidly. As a result, the need for aluminum packaging is growing. In this area, aluminum faces competition from plastic and glass.
- Automotive: Aluminum is a major player in the automotive world, as manufacturers look to replace steel with aluminum whenever possible. Aluminum is much more lightweight and can dramatically increase fuel economy.
- Construction: Which country uses the most aluminum? The major demand for aluminum comes from China, which ran a major aluminum trade surplus about eight years ago. China is responsible for about 60 percent of world demand for aluminum, mostly for construction.
Explore Our Market Outlook Reporting Options
We offer a variety of daily, weekly and monthly aluminum outlook report. Explore our reporting options below to stay ahead of industry trends.
1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)
Aluminum Intelligence Report (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the aluminum market landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.
LATEST ISSUE :
World Aluminum Oversupply Conditions to Persist in 2023-2024
The aluminum demand cycle remains in a contractionary phase, with primary aluminum demand continuing to deteriorate so far in 2023 across most of the Western World.
Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on what market players are expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on global aluminum output, capacity utilization and production costs.
LATEST ISSUE :
ACCELERATION in Aluminum Production Despite Chinese Cuts
China’s primary aluminum production growth has moderated toward... % y/y amid seasonal energy-related curtailments in southern China, which have temporarily reduced China’s smelting operations by as much as... million mtpy since August.
2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)
Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
A special report that analyzes the outlook for London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.
LATEST ISSUE :
LME Price Approaching Our $... per mton Forecast
HARBOR continues to expect LME prices to target the $... per mton zone in 2023; Consensus remains bullish. HARBOR has consistently anticipated a downward trend targeting the $... per mton zone before the end of 2023, forecasting LME Cash prices to average $...
3. ALUMINUM WORLD PRODUCT PREMIUMS (DAILY)
Daily Aluminum Lme & World Product Premiums Intelligence (daily)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the global outlooks for price and premiums. The aluminum market outlook report includes daily field intelligence and transactional premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and o -grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.
LATEST ISSUE :
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME price support at $2,200 holds; Plunge in US PFA spot premiums
Forecasts and Latest on Premiums (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive summary of the most important global aluminum product premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBORʼs relevant intelligence, premium assessment, and outlook on the P1020 (MW, Rotterdam, and MJP), billet, slab, foundry, purity, and off-grade market trends across the globe.
LATEST ISSUE :
What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?
ALERT! - US WIRE ROD. MORE DOMESTIC PRODUCTION: US EC rod spot market quiet, domestic production displaces imports (From March 21). | ALERT! – EUROPEAN P1020. INCHING UP: European P1020 duty-paid premiums up to four-month highs, bearish clouds intensify (From March 16). | ALERT! – EUROPEAN BILLET. RANGE WIDENS: European Q2 and spot premiums fall back to $... per mton on the low end but inch higher on high end (From March 17). To see our full European Billet Market Intel and Premiums assessment, please subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized European Billet Intelligence Report.
Alerts & Special Analysis On Latest/Exclusive Aluminum Market And Product Premiums Intel (several per week)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
On-time, expert intelligence analysis of any key development occurring across the aluminum value chain. These alerts will provide you with time-sensitive actionable intelligence on key industry and market trends, price movements and outlook, and premium activity across the globe. Alerts are segmented by region, type of material, industry sector and market segments, warning specific stakeholders in specific areas of the aluminum value chain. HARBOR's Aluminum App send users a timely signal when any alert has been released. LATEST ISSUE :
ALERT! - US PFA.
PLUNGE: US and Mexico PFA spot upcharges gap down to as low as... cent/lb.
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the European Billet market by relevant country. Offering intelligence, unparalleled insight and detailed visibility into billet premiums by country and by type of supplier, transactional activity, trade flows, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills key market commentary and field intelligence to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the different European billet markets. Spanish and Italian versions available.
LATEST ISSUE :
ALERT! – EUROPEAN BILLET.
RANGE WIDENS: European Q2 and spot premiums fall back to $... per mton on the low end but inch higher on high end.
4. NORTH AMERICA ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS (MONTHLY)
North America Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, can sheet, auto sheet & foil). Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the aluminum flat products market field.
LATEST ISSUE :
AUTOSHEET: Bearish Pressure on Prices Amid Poor Demand Momentum
Aluminum autosheet demand in North America continues to struggle to breach the... mark and is forecast by HABROR to... in 2023, reaching only... kmton amid...
5. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)
US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
US & Mexico Weekly Scrap Report
USA: SCRAP IS AVAILABLE Scrap demand remains lackluster, supply ample, discounts attractively wide. | MX: NOT IMPROVING The number of reliable homes buying scrap volumes remains limited, at a time when extended payment terms and cash flow constraints seem impacting the market.
European Secondary and Scrap Aluminum Intelligence (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Europe ś secondary and scrap aluminum markets by relevant country and their interaction with the major regional hubs like North America and Asia. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
STILL WEAK. D226 prices unchanged at three-month lows, twitch prices follow suit.
D226 prices remain at three-month lows. Domestic demand for spot D226 ingots has evaporated in Europe. Prices continued trading this week at a three-month low of EUR... per mton...
6. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)
Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices—both globally and regionally.
LATEST ISSUE :
WORLD SURPLUS: Alumina Production to Boom Outside Australia
HARBOR sees current Australian alumina spot price... However, prices below $... look fundamentally...
7. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q4 2022)
NOTE: Q1 2023 report will be issued in the first half April 2023.
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q4 2022)
NOTE: Q1 2023 report will be issued in the first half April 2023.
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q4 2022)
NOTE: Q1 2023 report will be issued in the first half April 2023.