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ALUMINUM MARKET OUTLOOK & PRICE FORECASTS

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum prices and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market

Aluminum Is Our Focus

At HARBOR, we are a market intelligence firm that specializes in the aluminum industry and its supply chain. While other firms research numerous commodities, our entire focus is only on aluminum. Deep and across. We gather, develop and analyze aluminum industry data and market intelligence across the supply chain and world regions to provide our clients with the best understanding of the competitive landscape and outlook.

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Why is Aluminum Market Intelligence Important?

Access to accurate aluminum market research and trends is critical for those who work in industries that rely on the production and sourcing of aluminum products. Daily aluminum prices can shift, and if you don’t have access to up-to-date aluminum intelligence reports and market outlook, you can fall behind your competitors. With a market outlook and aluminum price subscription from HARBOR, you don't have wonder if prices will go up or down. Our daily market and intelligence reports, as well as longer-term forecasts, provide comprehensive insights on factors that affect aluminum trading prices so that you stay ahead of the competition.

HARBORʼs consulting team has on average over 25 years of experience in the aluminum industry. Each Senior Consultant has several decades of specialized aluminum industry experience in upstream, downstream, and/or trading of aluminum. We have industry and market specialists for bauxite and alumina, primary aluminum products, flat rolled products, extrusions, scrap and secondary markets, cans, automotive, construction, industrials and consumer durables. We advise government agencies and render expert testimony in legal disputes and arbitration cases on matters related to the aluminum industry and its various markets.

Aluminum Industry Outlook on the Global Market

The major sectors of the global aluminum market are broken down across several different industries. The three industries that dominate the majority of global aluminum demand include:

  • Packaging: The rise of processed food and beverages in developing countries is increasing rapidly. As a result, the need for aluminum packaging is growing. In this area, aluminum faces competition from plastic and glass.

  • Automotive: Aluminum is a major player in the automotive world, as manufacturers look to replace steel with aluminum whenever possible. Aluminum is much more lightweight and can dramatically increase fuel economy.

  • Construction: Which country uses the most aluminum? The major demand for aluminum comes from China, which ran a major aluminum trade surplus about eight years ago. China is responsible for about 60 percent of world demand for aluminum, mostly for construction.

Explore Our Market Outlook Reporting Options

subscribe for daily market insights and trend data

We offer a variety of daily, weekly and monthly aluminum outlook report. Explore our reporting options below to stay ahead of industry trends.


1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Aluminum Intelligence Report (monthly)
A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Demand Contraction Intensifies
World primary aluminum demand is contracting driven by China. World primary demand started Q2 in annual contraction mode, down in April 2022 by... y/y according to HARBOR’s estimates
Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.
LATEST ISSUE :
Roaring Chinese Production, ROW to Expand the Most in a Decade
In April, world primary aluminum production hit new all-time highs of... million mton.

2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.
LATEST ISSUE :
LME Price Correction Ongoing (As Anticipated)
LME prices have reached HARBOR’s $... per mton price forecast. LME aluminum has accumulated a....

3. ALUMINUM WORLD PRODUCT PREMIUMS (DAILY)

Daily Aluminum Lme & World Product Premiums Intelligence (daily)
Sample-Daily Aluminum LME & World Product Premiums Intelligence
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and o -grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.
LATEST ISSUE :
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME technicals confirm $... per mton as next short-term target. Premiums fall again across Europe; Scrap demand tumbles
Aluminum Product Premiums Outlook (weekly)
Aluminum Product Premiums Outlook
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive summary of the most important aluminum product premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBORʼs relevant intelligence, premium assessment, and outlook on the P1020 (MW, Rotterdam, and MJP), billet, slab, foundry, purity, and off-grade market across the globe.
LATEST ISSUE :
What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?
US MW PREMIUM ALERT. DISCOUNTS CONTINUE: MW premium confirmed at... cent/lb (From June 17). | US SLAB ALERT. FLYING HIGH: Offshore slab imports reach new record highs (From June 17). | EUROPEAN P1020 ALERT. BEARISH PRESSURE: European P1020 premiums fall for the first time in seven months as bearish pressure grows (From June 17).
Alerts & Special Analysis On Latest/Exclusive Aluminum Market And Product Premiums Intel (several per week)
Alerts-Special-Analysis-Aluminum-Market-Premiums
REPORT DESCRIPTION
On-time, expert intelligence analysis of any key development occurring across the aluminum value chain. These alerts will provide you with time-sensitive actionable intelligence on key industry and market developments, price movements and outlook, and premium activity across the globe. Alerts are segmented by region, type of material, industry sector and market segments, warning specific stakeholders in specific areas of the aluminum value chain. HARBOR's Aluminum App send users a timely signal when any alert has been released.
LATEST ISSUE :
EUROPEAN P1020 ALERT.
MORE DECLINES: European P1020 premiums fall again.
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts (weekly)
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the European Billet market by relevant country. Offering intelligence, unparalleled insight and detailed visibility into billet premiums by country and by type of supplier, transactional activity, trade flows, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills key market commentary and field intelligence to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the different European billet markets. Spanish and Italian versions available.
LATEST ISSUE :
EUROPEAN BILLET ALERT.
FALLS FURTHER: European billet spot premiums decline extends.

4. NORTH AMERICA ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS (MONTHLY)

North America Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report (monthly)
North America Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, can sheet, auto sheet & foil).Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the aluminum flat products market field.
LATEST ISSUE :
Foil Price Declines Seen Ahead But Not To Historic Lows
US aluminum foil conversion prices have registered modest gains of... % in Q1 2022 and are now forecast to decline as much as... % throughout 2022 and early 2023.

5. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel
USA: BACKWARDATION: Prices for June delivery now trading in backwardation. | PROMPT DEMAND: US brokers buying prompt loads of 5052 scrap for May delivery.
European Secondary and Scrap Aluminum Intelligence (weekly)
EUROPEAN-SECONDARY-AND-SCRAP-ALUMINUM-INTELLIGENCE
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Europe ś secondary and scrap aluminum markets by relevant country and their interaction with the major regional hubs like North America and Asia. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
BREAKING RANKS. Demand for secondary ingot and scrap tumbles.
Spot market plummets. Our intel from the ground indicates that spot demand in Europe has collapsed, not only for aluminum but across the metal complex...

6. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices—both globally and regionally.
LATEST ISSUE :
Alumina Prices Fall Further on China’s Production Expansions
As anticipated by HARBOR, Australia alumina spot FOB prices have continued to...

7. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q1 2022)
Q2 2022 report will be issued in the first half of July 2022.
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q1 2022)
Q2 2022 report will be issued in the first half of July 2022.
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Repor (Data for Q1 2022)
Q2 2022 report will be issued in the first half of July 2022.