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MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM PRICE FORECASTS

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

Overview of the Global Aluminum Market

The major sectors of the global aluminum market can be broken down into three industries:

  • Packaging: The rise of processed food and beverages in developing countries is increasing rapidly. As a result, the need for aluminum packaging is growing. In this area, aluminum faces competition from plastic and glass.

  • Automotive: Aluminum is a major player in the automotive world, as manufacturers look to replace steel with aluminum whenever possible. Aluminum is much more lightweight and can dramatically increase fuel economy.

  • Construction: Which country uses the most aluminum? The major demand for aluminum comes from China, which ran a major aluminum trade surplus about eight years ago. China is responsible for about 60 percent of world demand for aluminum, mostly for construction.

Importance of Aluminum Market Intelligence

Access to accurate aluminum market research is critical. Daily aluminum prices can shift, and if you don’t have access to an up-to-date aluminum market intelligence and outlook, you can fall behind your competitors. A market outlook and aluminum price subscription from HARBOR Aluminum meets this need. We supply daily aluminum market and price intelligence reports and longer-term forecasts to keep you ahead of the competition.

Market Outlook and Aluminum Forecast Reports Offered

We offer a variety of daily, weekly and monthly aluminum report options.


1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Aluminum Intelligence Report (monthly)
A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.
LATEST ISSUE :
Demand Contracts the Most in a Decade, Largest Surplus since 2009 Expected Ahead
World primary demand contracts the most in a decade, expecting a trough in Q4. Q3 2019 marked the sharpest demand contraction in a decade, stabilization seen in Q4.
Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.
LATEST ISSUE :
World Primary Aluminum Production Growth to Accelerate by 9X in 2020
World aluminum production is set to expand 9X more in 2020 than in 2019 as smelting profitability improves and restarts and expansions go ahead in the Western World and China.

2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.
LATEST ISSUE :
Upside Price Potential Ahead, Bearish Momentum to Resume Later in 2020
LME aluminum prices remain in a bottoming-out pattern, as anticipated by HARBOR. Since practically reaching HARBOR’s target of $1,680 per mton in October, LME aluminum prices have range-traded with strong support at the $1,740 per mton threshold.

3. ALUMINUM WORLD PRODUCT PREMIUMS (DAILY)

Daily Aluminum Lme & World Product Premiums Intelligence (daily)
Sample-Daily Aluminum LME & World Product Premiums Intelligence
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and o -grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.
LATEST ISSUE :
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME inventories up to an eight-year high amid growing oversupply
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (weekly)
Aluminum Premiums Outlook
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive, in-a-nutshell summary of the most significant world’s aluminum premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBOR’s relevant intelligence, premium assessment movements and analysis by region, including P1020, purity and VAP premiums.
LATEST ISSUE :
What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?
USA: MW spot premium plummets to 12.05–13.05 cent/lb.| EUROPE: European Tier 1 supplier Q1 2020 billet premium falls below $300 per mton. Italian spot premiums fall to $270 per mton.
Alerts & Special Analysis On Latest/Exclusive Aluminum Market And Product Premiums Intel (several per week)
Alerts-Special-Analysis-Aluminum-Market-Premiums
REPORT DESCRIPTION
On-time, expert intelligence analysis of any key development occurring across the aluminum value chain. These alerts will provide you with time-sensitive actionable intelligence on key industry and market developments, price movements and outlook, and premium activity across the globe. Alerts are segmented by region, type of material, industry sector and market segments, warning specific stakeholders in specific areas of the aluminum value chain. HARBOR's Aluminum App send users a timely signal when any alert has been released.
LATEST ISSUE :
ALUMINUM PRODUCTION ALERT.
US Section 301 tariffs on Chinese aluminum imports likely to be reduced to 7.5% amid Phase One trade agreement
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts (weekly)
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the European Billet market by relevant country. Offering intelligence, unparalleled insight and detailed visibility into billet premiums by country and by type of supplier, transactional activity, trade flows, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills key market commentary and field intelligence to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the different European billet markets. Spanish and Italian versions available.
LATEST ISSUE :
Spot premiums fall further in Spain and UK; premiums expected to bottom-out soon
Spot premiums in Spain falls below $300 per mton, UK premiums weakens too. Some secondary billet producers almost at a standstill. We believe premiums are in a bottoming-out process.

4. NORTH AMERICA ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS (MONTHLY)

North America Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report (monthly)
North America Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, can sheet, auto sheet & foil).Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the aluminum flat products market field.
LATEST ISSUE :
Downward Pressure on NHT Autosheet Prices to Continue in 2020
US conversion prices for aluminum automotive sheet appear to have diverged, with NHT autosheet conversion prices declining and HT autosheet conversion prices remaining relatively stable.

5. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
USA: Real Alloy's Steele plant closure bullish secondary alloy, but not a shock.
Real Alloy Steele, a secondary scrap consumer and producer of A.380 and A.319 alloys in Alabama, is shutting down production.
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.
LATEST ISSUE :
Mexican Market: More appetite for US units and less willingness to transact on a VAT included basis.
Domestic demand for US imported scrap units keeps growing, while more US suppliers look to find new homes in Mexico.
European Secondary and Scrap Aluminum Intelligence (weekly)
EUROPEAN-SECONDARY-AND-SCRAP-ALUMINUM-INTELLIGENCE
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Europe's scrap oversupply is expanding, especially for segregated clips and secondary items
LATEST ISSUE :
Demand for turnings a bit up in Italy. Our intel from the ground indicates there has been some increased appetite for prompt-delivery turnings...
Spot scrap activity basically nil. According to our visibility, secondary and primary scrap spot market is already stalled as consumers are focusing mainly on year-end inventory management and/or maintenance work. In the same vein, most scrap dealers are closing operations and expected to be back until the second week of January.

6. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices—both globally and regionally.
LATEST ISSUE :
Alumina Spot Prices Near Bottom, Upside Still Capped by Fundamentals
ALUMINA: Alumina spot prices have fallen to their lowest level since May 2017.

7. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2019)
Q4 2019 report will be issued in the first half of January.
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2019)
Q4 2019 report will be issued in the first half of January.
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2019)
NOTE: Q4 2019 report will be issued in the first half of January.