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MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM PRICE FORECASTS

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Aluminum Intelligence Report (monthly)
A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.
LATEST ISSUE :
Demand Cycle Nears Bottom, Recovery Expected to be Weak
Our end-user demand leading indicators have been suggesting that the ongoing downturn in the world’s manufacturing cycle could begin to subside soon, even though activity could take a few more months to return to expansion territory.
Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.
LATEST ISSUE :
ROW’s Production Reaches an All-Time Record High; Expansion to Accelerate in 2020
Primary aluminum production in the Western World expanded in August at the strongest rate in six months... | World’s primary aluminum production growth rates to double in 2019 and further accelerate in 2020.

2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.
LATEST ISSUE :
Prices Expected to Bottom Out Soon, Upside Limited
LME aluminum prices have broken below key support, now technically targeting the $1,680-1,550 per mton zone.

3. ALUMINUM WORLD PRODUCT PREMIUMS (DAILY)

Daily Aluminum Lme & World Product Premiums Intelligence (daily)
Sample-Daily Aluminum LME & World Product Premiums Intelligence
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and o -grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.
LATEST ISSUE :
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices find support at $1,710–$1,720 per mton; LME spreads tighten to a new nine-month low (bearish for spot premiums)
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (weekly)
Aluminum Premiums Outlook
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive, in-a-nutshell summary of the most significant world’s aluminum premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBOR’s relevant intelligence, premium assessment movements and analysis by region, including P1020, purity and VAP premiums.
LATEST ISSUE :
What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?
USA: MW spot premium declines to 16.22–16.33 cent/lb as discounts under journalistic references widen. | EUROPE: European suppliers push for early Q1 2020 contractual billet negotiations amid growing oversupply.
Alerts & Special Analysis On Latest/Exclusive Aluminum Market And Product Premiums Intel (several per week)
Alerts-Special-Analysis-Aluminum-Market-Premiums
REPORT DESCRIPTION
On-time, expert intelligence analysis of any key development occurring across the aluminum value chain. These alerts will provide you with time-sensitive actionable intelligence on key industry and market developments, price movements and outlook, and premium activity across the globe. Alerts are segmented by region, type of material, industry sector and market segments, warning specific stakeholders in specific areas of the aluminum value chain. HARBOR's Aluminum App send users a timely signal when any alert has been released.
LATEST ISSUE :
ALUMINUM PRODUCTION ALERT.
NALCO confirms production cuts amid temporary coal shortage, negligible market impact.
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts (weekly)
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the European Billet market by relevant country. Offering intelligence, unparalleled insight and detailed visibility into billet premiums by country and by type of supplier, transactional activity, trade flows, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills key market commentary and field intelligence to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the different European billet markets. Spanish and Italian versions available.
LATEST ISSUE :
Q1 2020 billet contractual premiums fall further. Turkey 2020 annual billet premiums also weakening
European Q1 contractual premiums are declining further. More in detail, based on our visibility of already closed contracts and ongoing negotiations, we expect for now the following Q1 2020 contractual premium...

4. US ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS (MONTHLY)

US Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report (monthly)
US Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, can sheet, auto sheet & foil).Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the aluminum flat products market field.
LATEST ISSUE :
Cansheet Tightness Not Pressuring Conversion Prices Much
In the short term (through 2020), can body stock conversion prices are not expected to increase while end and tab stock conversion prices are headed up slightly; around 5-7% on higher alloy costs.

5. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
USA :Spot US A380 and twitch plummet to fresh ten-year lows amid growing oversupply.
HARBOR's US spot A380 prices delivered Midwest fell today to a fresh ten-year low of 57-59 cent/lb
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.
LATEST ISSUE :
US MARKET: Are we close to the bottom of the aluminum scrap market?
General Motors´ strike still having little effect on prices. The strike has entered its third week and scrap prices haven't declined substantially.
European Secondary and Scrap Aluminum Intelligence (weekly)
EUROPEAN-SECONDARY-AND-SCRAP-ALUMINUM-INTELLIGENCE
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Europe's scrap oversupply is expanding, especially for segregated clips and secondary items
LATEST ISSUE :
Non-stop fall for secondary alloy ingot prices; scrap inventories building up at yards
Spot prices for secondary D226 alloy ingot and equivalent falling almost every week; Scrap dealers actively looking for alternative homes as spot demand plummets.

6. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices—both globally and regionally.
LATEST ISSUE :
Expecting a Bauxite Market Surplus Even if Indonesia Bans Exports in 2020
BAUXITE: The Indonesian government is studying the possibility of banning bauxite exports starting January 2020. | ALUMINA: As predicted by HARBOR since early last year, Australia alumina spot prices have fallen below $300 per mton.

7. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2019)
Q4 2019 report will be issued in the first half of January.
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2019)
Q4 2019 report will be issued in the first half of January.
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2019)
NOTE: Q4 2019 report will be issued in the first half of January.