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MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM PRICE FORECASTS

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Aluminum Intelligence Report (monthly)
A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Demand Contracts the Most in Ten Years, Shift to a Growing Surplus Continues
Western World primary aluminum demand contracted in H1 2019. Factors driving this contraction are a downturn in automotive and manufacturing activity, overabundance of scrap units in ROW, and booming Chinese semis exports.
Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.
LATEST ISSUE :
It's Happening, Aluminum Production is Growing and Set to Boom
World primary aluminum production expanded in Q2 2019...

2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.
LATEST ISSUE :
LME Price Downward Trend Is Not Over Yet
As anticipated, LME aluminum prices have continued to decline and have fallen below the key $1,770 per mton threshold.

3. ALUMINUM REGIONAL PREMIUMS (DAILY)

Daily Aluminum Lme & World Product Premiums Intelligence (daily)
Sample-Daily Aluminum LME & World Product Premiums Intelligence
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and o -grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.
LATEST ISSUE :
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices vulnerable to a new leg down; Nearby spreads narrow as canceled warrants climb in Asia
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (weekly)
Aluminum Premiums Outlook
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive, in-a-nutshell summary of the most significant world’s aluminum premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBOR’s relevant intelligence, premium assessment movements and analysis by region, including P1020, purity and VAP premiums.
LATEST ISSUE :
What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?
USA: Potential RTA interest in Victoriaville rod mill (35 kmtpy) could bring online the remaining ex-Sural rod mill and make RTA the largest third-party North American wire rod producer. | EUROPE: Spot premiums in Spain and Portugal continue to decline; contraction in demand impacting North Europe and Italy the hardest.
Alerts & Special Analysis On Latest/Exclusive Aluminum Market And Product Premiums Intel (several per week)
Alerts-Special-Analysis-Aluminum-Market-Premiums
REPORT DESCRIPTION
On-time, expert intelligence analysis of any key development occurring across the aluminum value chain. These alerts will provide you with time-sensitive actionable intelligence on key industry and market developments, price movements and outlook, and premium activity across the globe. Alerts are segmented by region, type of material, industry sector and market segments, warning specific stakeholders in specific areas of the aluminum value chain. HARBOR's Aluminum App send users a timely signal when any alert has been released.
LATEST ISSUE :
LME Price Alert.
LME prices down to key threshold amid manufacturing contraction fears.
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts (weekly)
European Billet Market Updates And Alerts
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the European Billet market by relevant country. Offering intelligence, unparalleled insight and detailed visibility into billet premiums by country and by type of supplier, transactional activity, trade flows, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills key market commentary and field intelligence to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the different European billet markets. Spanish and Italian versions available.
LATEST ISSUE :
Premiums for Q4 fall to as low as $315 per mton; suppliers search for new markets amid oversupply
South Europe sees premiums for Q4 fall to as low as $315 per mton, atypical billet unit flows could be seen ahead as suppliers fight for business in an oversupplied market.

4. US ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS (MONTHLY)

US Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report (monthly)
US Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, can sheet, auto sheet & foil).Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the aluminum flat products market field.
LATEST ISSUE :
US Common Alloy Conversion Prices Have Started to Decline, More Declines Ahead
As anticipated, US conversion prices for common alloy aluminum sheet, have fallen so far Q3 2019 as consumers and distributors work off surplus inventories amid weakening demand.

5. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
USA: UBC discounts for September delivery material near record at +40 cent/lb. | Margins for secondary smelters to narrow further amid falling secondary
In the spot market, discounts have remained above 40 cent/lb since September 2018.
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.
LATEST ISSUE :
US MARKET: Has the aluminum scrap market bottomed out
On the physical side, the scrap bottom could be near. We see few consumers quoting for primary or scrap aluminum well into September.
European Secondary and Scrap Aluminum Intelligence (weekly)
EUROPEAN-SECONDARY-AND-SCRAP-ALUMINUM-INTELLIGENCE
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Europe's secondary and scrap aluminum markets by relevant country and their interaction with the major regional hubs like North America and Asia. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
Twitch and extrusion scrap flowing from North America to South Europe
More material making its way to the European market. Our intel from the ground indicates that some South European consumers (especially in Italy) are buying twitch units in the US...

6. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices—both globally and regionally.
LATEST ISSUE :
Production in Western World will Grow at the Fastest Pace in a Decade
ALUMINA: As anticipated by HARBOR, Australia alumina spot prices have continued to decline and have reached a fresh 25- month low. | BAUXITE: More bauxite production capacity is coming to the market.

7. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q2 2019)
Q3 2019 report will be issued in the first half of October.
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q2 2019)
Q3 2019 report will be issued in the first half of October.
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q2 2019)
Q3 2019 report will be issued in the first half of October.