LME price falls back toward low end of trading range; US billet and PFA spot premiums fall

1. LME Cash prices closed at a three-week low of $... per mton, heading toward $... per mton as HARBOR anticipated—amid ongoing demand contraction, market surplus and deteriorating price technicals.

2. ALERT! – LME INVENTORIES. Russia and India are the top LME aluminum origins.

3. China’s aluminum prices are down to two-week lows on demand concerns.

4. RERUN: ALERT! – US PFA. FALL CONTINUES: US & Mexico PFA spot upcharge reaches... cent/lb.

5. RERUN: ALERT! – US BILLET. FRESH TWO-YEAR LOWS: US spot billet declines to as low as... cent/lb.

6. RERUN: ALERT! – EUROPEAN BILLET. PAUSE IN TREND CONTINUES: European extruders in no rush to step into spot market, and Italy/Poland contracting demand extends into Q2.

To see our full European Billet Market Intel and Premiums assessment, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “European Billet Intelligence” reports.

7. UPDATE! – WORLD SMELTING PRODUCTION COST. CORRECTING FURTHER: Weaker cost support for LME prices amid downtrend in Chinese energy prices.

For details on world aluminum smelting cost trends and figures, subscribe to HARBOR’s “Aluminum Smelting Cost” report.

8. ALERT! – COMMON ALLOY DUTIES. CIRCUMVENTION FOUND: Chinese exports of 4017 alloy sheet to the US are determined to be circumventing duties.

For more details, subscribe to HARBOR’s “Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence” Report.

9. ALERT! – BRAZIL ALUMINUM. BEARISH PAUSE: Brazil’s spot P1020 premiums unchanged at multi-year lows.

10. LME Cash–3M contango widens, supportive for short-term cash-and-carry deals.