SHFE price jump re-opens export arbitrage to China; aluminum market set to get even tighter

March 3, 2021

CHINA ALUMINUM ALERT.

1. CHINA ALUMINUM ALERT. P1020 exports to China already regaining momentum as arbitrage window reopens; bullish LME prices and P1020 premiums as current “extreme tightness” could worsen.

2. LME prices still unable to breach expected technical resistance zone at $... per mton; reopening of P1020 export arbitrage to China supportive.

3. US BILLET ALERT. FRESH ALL-TIME HIGHS: Billet premiums spikes to... c/lb, more upside seen.

4. MEXICO BILLET ALERT. BILLET PREMIUMS JUMP: Spot at $... per mton, offers at $... per mton.

5. NORTH AMERICA PFA ALERT. RESILIENT: Strong PFA demand enduring despite temporary power outages and semiconductor shortage.

6. ALERT! – US COMMON ALLOY. A FEW RELEVANT CHANGES: Final duties on US imports of common alloy coils. For more details, please subscribe to our specialized Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence Report.

7. LME Cash–3M contango widens again to double digits; conditions after March remain supportive.

More details in full report.

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