Trader heard buying sizeable amount of Canadian units amid oversupply and potential Section 232 hard-quota exemption

HARBOR is hearing from multiple sources in the trade that one market participant just bought over 200,000 mton of Canadian primary aluminum units in a context of an oversupplied market and deep market discounts. The upside of the purchase is seen as considerable if Canada accepts the US offer of a hard-quota Section 232 Tariff exemption. If Canada agrees to a hard-quota Section 232 Tariff exemption (the only US offer on the table), the purchaser of the 200 kmton of Canadian units and any other holder of Canadian units purchased on a similar MW duty-unpaid basis would benefit greatly as it would be able to quickly export the units and sell them at a duty-paid premium in the US Midwest, pocketing the duty component as the units would be exempted (at least 9 cent/lb of profit).

More details in full report.