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LME Price Downward Trend Not Over Yet

Executive Summary

1. LME Cash aluminum prices have range-traded during September between $... per mton, not far from a two-and-a-half-year low of $... per mton reached in August. LME prices have been stabilized at low levels by higher oil prices and higher aluminum prices in China, although they still remain unable to exit a medium-term technical downward trend.

2. HARBOR continues to see fresh LME price lows ahead. World manufacturing activity has been... 

3. LME prices remain on track to reach the $... per mton zone before year-end, with strong odds of prolonged weakness in early 2024. HARBOR’s LME Cash price forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at $... per mton.