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Forecasts and Latest on Premiums (July 19, 2023)

1. ALERT! – US BILLET. CONTRACTION BITES: Most US extruders shift tactics as contraction in extrusion demand extends (From July 18).

2. ALERT! – US PFA. SINGLE DIGIT OFFERS: Demand weakness and subdued spot market appetite pressuring spot premiums (From July 14).

3. ALERT! – EUROPE PFA. 19-MONTH LOWS: European PFA spot premiums decline to as low as $625 per mton (From July 14).

4. ALERT! – EUROPEAN BILLET. SHARP DEMAND DETERIORATION: Billet demand and premiums deteriorate further, extrusion conversion prices down again (From July 14). Some European extruders see capacity utilization fall to as low as 50% while billet premiums and extrusion conversion prices deteriorate further as demand contraction intensifies. The bulk of Q3 contractual negotiations are now over. However, billet premiums for monthly contracts for September are still being negotiated. To see our full European Billet Market Intel and Premiums assessment, please subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized European Billet Intelligence Report.