Cansheet Undergoing 2-Fold Correction, Growth Expected Not Until 2024

Executive Summary:

The North America cansheet market is undergoing a 2-fold correction in demand brought on by the rapid pandemic surge and over-buying of both cansheet and empty aluminum cans; resulting in a significant surplus that is currently being destocked from the supply chain, which is driving cansheet demand downward in 2023. As the destocking, which is the first correction, concludes later in 2023, the second correction; the 3%-5% per year growth rate from the new lower baseline and grounded in the fundamentals of favoring aluminum vs PET, will resume, and drive demand up in 2024,; while long-term contracts will keep conversion prices relatively stable over the medium term with little change in body stock and modest 4% increase in end and tab stock.