Bullish LME price target could be confirmed on Friday; Soaring cancellations in Asia, bullish signal for premiums

Executive Summary

Special Note: HARBOR’s Daily Aluminum Commentary will not be published on Wednesday nor Thursday, December 25-26 due to the Christmas and Boxing Day Holidays.

1. LME PRICE ALERT. LME prices closed today above important resistance threshold, new technical target of $1,940 per mton could be confirmed on Friday.

2. LME INVENTORY ANALYSIS. Canceled warrants spike by the most in seven years as nearby contango is restored (favors cash-and-carry deals). Confirms conviction that premiums have bottomed out.

3. LME Cash–3M contango narrows from three-month highs (still supportive for premiums).

4. HARBOR’s Implicit Green Aluminum Upcharge assessed today at zero.

5. China’s aluminum prices test a new five-week high amid expectation of domestic economic stimulus.

More details in full report.