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Curtailments of unprofitable capacity to widen ROW’s production shortfall
The gap between consumption and production in ROW will widen. HARBOR’s analysis suggests that production of primary aluminum in ROW fell short of demand in 2013 by 200,000 tons, the first shortfall in six years. Assuming no more production curtailments occur, HARBOR expects this gap to widen to slightly over 1 million tons in 2014 and 2015 and to over 2 million tons if at least 20% of today’s unprofitable capacity curtails production which is a likely scenario. We see ingot, billet and slab most affected.
Fresh Record High North American Regional P1020 Premiums
A regional landscape for North America´s P1020 ingot premiums. The North American aluminum market landscape has changed dramatically...
LME Prices Not Reflecting Physical Tightness, Premiums Have Started to Do So for Now
LME aluminum prices have fallen below the four-year-old support of $1,750 per mton and are technically targeting...
Indonesia’s Bauxite Exports Fall More Than Expected After Ban
HARBOR has confirmed that Indonesian bauxite exports have declined more than expected so far this year and that it is high likely that no shipments have been made after the ban was implemented in January 12th. Contrary to expectations, no export concessions have been granted so far for companies. As anticipated by HARBOR, Chinese import prices for material coming from Indonesia have increased (7% so far 2014), standing at $59.5 per mton CIF, a two-month high. Prices are expected to increase further in the measure that Chinese imported bauxite inventories begin to decline.
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