aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
latest intelligence reports...
China Remains the Driver, Demand and Price Recovery Seen Limited and Temporal
Global metal surplus generated during Q1 2016 (492 kmton) was a third of the surplus generated in Q1 2015. Decline was possible as China’s overproduction declined more than...
Premiums will continue to fall, but are getting closer to equilibrium levels
Aluminum premiums around the globe have resumed their decline driven by one major driver and its effects: LME Warehousing Reform...
Bottoming-Out Pattern Confirmed, Depressed Prices Seen Ahead
Bottoming-out pattern confirmed. Despite re-entering a short-term downtrend in late March, LME aluminum prices have resisted falling below $1,480-1,460 per mton (67-66 cent/lb)...
We Are Slightly Bullish Alumina (More Upside), Bearish Bauxite
Further gains for alumina spot prices are likely, prices could reach as high as $270 per mton by year end on expectations of a tight global alumina market and as current spot prices remain low with respect to alumina production costs and LME primary aluminum prices. From a production cost perspective, alumina prices may target the marginal cost of production of Chinese producers (currently at $270-$285). Meanwhile, spot alumina prices are trading at 16.4% of LME aluminum price vs 17.5% of 1-year contract prices (implies spot prices of $265 per mton). Indeed, HARBOR has slightly upgraded its 2016 average alumina spot price forecast from $235 per mton to...
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