aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
latest intelligence reports...
China Not Curtailing as Announced, Global Demand to Grow at Half Its Recent Rates
Global primary aluminum production is not declining fast enough to avoid a meaningful market surplus (again). While the US primary aluminum industry continues...
Aluminum P1020 and VAP’s Premiums Fall Not Over Yet
As anticipated by HARBOR, aluminum P1020 premiums have continued to fall in all regions of the world, and now stand at multi-year lows...
Expecting Short-Term Price Rallies, Structural Downward Pressure Should Predominate
LME 3M aluminum prices averaged $1,482 per mton (67 cent/lb), down 1.1% m/m, but experienced a technical rally during the last...
Expecting a Global Alumina Deficit in 2016 on Production Cuts
Expecting the global alumina market to be deficit in 2016. HARBOR estimates that the global alumina market could experience a 2.6 million mton production shortfall in 2016, down from our previous forecast of a 3.6 million mton surplus. In this new forecast, we assume China will have a 7.1 million mton deficit and ROW a 4.5 million mton surplus. However, a global market...
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