aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
latest intelligence reports...
Industry Production Costs Keep Falling, Lower LME Prices Required for Needed Curtailments to Happen
One of the most important underlying trends in the aluminum industry in the last four years has been a notorious decline in the cost of production of aluminum...
We Continue to Expect 7 cent/lb ($150 per mton) before the End of 2016
As anticipated by HARBOR, aluminum premiums peaked early this year and are now falling sharply. Since early February, premiums in Asia, Europe and the Americas have...
Market Sentiment Towards Aluminum is the Most Bearish in 10 Years on Fundamentals and China
LME 3M aluminum prices plunged in July to fresh 6-year lows of $1,631 per mton...
Downgrading Alumina Price Forecasts, Current Malaysian BX Exports not Enough
HARBOR still forecasts that the Chinese bauxite market will experience a slight production shortfall of around 4.4 million mton in 2015 in spite of increasing supply from Malaysia. Bauxite import data from Malaysia is most likely showing carryover imports from previous months. Indeed, HARBOR has picked up that Malaysia is exporting bauxite at an annualized rate of 13.0 million mton vs reported 18.61 million mton annualized exports In May. Additionally, HARBOR’s sources have pointed out that bauxite reserves in Malaysia could be depleted within 4 years and that the pace in which the country has increased production is unsustainable. Furthermore, at this point HARBOR continues to forecast a global bauxite production shortfall because Chinese bauxite imports from countries like Dominican Republic and Fiji have resulted...
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