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> aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
* latest intelligence reports...
Chinese exports of semis and smelter restarts could halve expected deficit in 2015
Abstract: Global manufacturing activity (a proxy for global aluminum demand) expanded in November at its slowest pace since September 2013, mainly amid further slowdowns in Europe and...

More LME Vlissingen Cancelations Needed to Avoid Decline in Premiums During 2015
Abstract: We see P1020 aluminum premiums falling gradually in 2015 and 2016, but reaching...

Downgrading 2015-2016 LME price forecasts as headwinds weaken bullish case
Abstract: HARBOR is downgrading its 2015-2016 LME price forecasts. In light of the effects that the sharper-than-expected decline in oil prices and strength of the US Dollar is having and will have on...

Global Bauxite Market Deficit to Widen in 2015; Alumina to Remain Well Supplied
Abstract: Global bauxite market to experience a production shortfall of 2.6 million mton in 2014; the shortfall could widen to an average of 11.5 million mton per year in the 2015-2019 period. Most of this bauxite production shortfall is explained by China, where HARBOR estimates a 5.5 million mton bauxite deficit for 2014 and an average of 12.0 million mton per year deficit in the 2015-2019 period mainly as a consequence of lower Chinese imports from Indonesia amid the country’s bauxite export ban that started this year. This scenario assumes that the Indonesian bauxite export ban remains in place (although there are chances that it could be relaxed and some exports would be available) and that exports from other countries to China increase from 27.3 million mton in 2014 to 38.3 million mton in 2019.

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