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* latest intelligence reports...
China Remains the Driver, Demand and Price Recovery Seen Limited and Temporal
Abstract: Global metal surplus generated during Q1 2016 (492 kmton) was a third of the surplus generated in Q1 2015. Decline was possible as China’s overproduction declined more than...

Premiums will continue to fall, but are getting closer to equilibrium levels
Abstract: Aluminum premiums around the globe have resumed their decline driven by one major driver and its effects: LME Warehousing Reform...

Bottoming-Out Pattern Confirmed, Depressed Prices Seen Ahead
Abstract: Bottoming-out pattern confirmed. Despite re-entering a short-term downtrend in late March, LME aluminum prices have resisted falling below $1,480-1,460 per mton (67-66 cent/lb)...

We Are Slightly Bullish Alumina (More Upside), Bearish Bauxite
Abstract: Further gains for alumina spot prices are likely, prices could reach as high as $270 per mton by year end on expectations of a tight global alumina market and as current spot prices remain low with respect to alumina production costs and LME primary aluminum prices. From a production cost perspective, alumina prices may target the marginal cost of production of Chinese producers (currently at $270-$285). Meanwhile, spot alumina prices are trading at 16.4% of LME aluminum price vs 17.5% of 1-year contract prices (implies spot prices of $265 per mton). Indeed, HARBOR has slightly upgraded its 2016 average alumina spot price forecast from $235 per mton to...

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