aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
latest intelligence reports...
China materially impacting ROW’s primary aluminum demand, Asia the most affected
China is materially impacting ROW’s primary aluminum demand amid booming exports of aluminum semis and falling scrap imports...
We Continue to Expect 7 cent/lb ($150 per mton) before the End of 2016
As anticipated by HARBOR, aluminum premiums peaked early this year and are now falling sharply. Since early February, premiums in Asia, Europe and the Americas have...
HARBOR, Consensus and LME’s option market see prices rising less than 2% this year
LME 3M aluminum prices have range traded in the last month between $1,800 per mton (81.7 cent/lb) and the key multi-year support level of $1,750 per mton (79.4 cent/lb)...
Expecting Tightness Ahead for Alumina and Bauxite
HARBOR now forecasts a balanced global alumina market vs earlier expectations of a 1.011 million mton surplus. A combination of alumina production curtailments/disruptions in ROW and an ongoing recovery of alumina demand in ROW are now leading HARBOR to expect a balanced market in 2015.
The global alumina market will most likely tighten further. For the 2016-2019 period, the global alumina market could experience a production shortfall of around 0.7 million mton per year. The combination of production disruptions (India) and demand growth (India and Middle East) in the Pacific region have squeezed spot alumina availability while traders and consumers are looking to cover short positions. This has created...
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