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Significant US Smelting Capacity Could Shutdown in Months Ahead
Abstract: Significant odds that as much as 70% or 1.17 million mton of current US operating capacity could be curtailed or shut down within the next 12 months given plummeting all-in aluminum prices and a stronger US dollar. High purity market (P0404 or better), billet and PFA would be impacted the most by...

Aluminum P1020 and VAP’s Premiums Fall Not Over Yet
Abstract: As anticipated by HARBOR, aluminum P1020 premiums have continued to fall in all regions of the world, and now stand at multi-year lows...

Bearish Outlook Remains as Fundamentals Continue to Weaken
Abstract: LME aluminum prices experienced during September a bearish rally… The rally occurred in a context of: A) Weak trading volume, B)...

Lower Metal and AA Prices Expected To Impact Alumina Demand and Production
Abstract: Profitability for alumina producers in ROW has deteriorated lately as spot prices have continued to decline to fresh 6-year lows. HARBOR estimates that, at current Australia alumina spot prices of $278 per mton,13% of ROW’s capacity would be losing money on a cash cost basis vs 7% a month ago. This capacity that amounts 6.5 million mton is located mainly in Europe (74% of total) with the rest in Asia. Additionally, 27% of ROW’s capacity cannot cover their total cost of production (operating cost + interest payments, depreciation and working capital), compared to...

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