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MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM PRICE FORECASTS

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.
LATEST ISSUE :
Downgrading our Demand Forecasts on Cannibalization, Production Growth to Double in 2019
World primary aluminum demand being cannibalized as expected in the US, Europe, Japan, South Korea amid increased scrap supply and booming exports of Chinese semis. ROW’s market remains projected to shift to surplus in 2019 as demand growth weakens further while production growth doubles. HARBOR downgrades demand ,expects LME price to fall in 2019 and 2020.
Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Production to Accelerate as US Restarts and Alba’s Expansion Take the Lead
In August, global primary aluminum production growth continued to accelerate y/y world daily production run-rates held at record highs as production gains in ROW (mainly from the US) were offset by small losses in China.

2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

Aluminum LME Price Outlook (monthly)
Aluminum LME Price Outlook (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.
LATEST ISSUE :
Even if US Sanctions are Not Removed, We See Lower Prices in 2019 and 2020.
After abandoning a 24-month long rally in June and falling over 30% from its peak, LME aluminum prices have stabilized within the $2,000 to $2,150 per mton range.
Aluminum Strategic Buying Signals (occasional)
Aluminum Strategic Buying Signals (occasional)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
A one-page report with the most relevant intelligence to evaluate the attractiveness of locking in LME aluminum prices at a given point in time. It will help you assess price value, buying risks, and timing to execute.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR’s Model Signals...
HARBOR’s model suggests locking inat least half of open metal needs as...

3. ALUMINUM REGIONAL PREMIUMS (DAILY)

Daily Aluminum LME & Premiums Intel (includes Alerts)
Sample-Daily Aluminum LME & Premiums
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and off-grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.
LATEST ISSUE :
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices decline further and test $2,030 support as Hydro confirmed Alunorte will be restarting 50% of its alumina capacity
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive, in-a-nutshell summary of the most significant world’s aluminum premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBOR’s relevant intelligence, premium assessment movements and analysis by region, including 1020, purity and VAP premiums.
LATEST ISSUE :
What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?
Downward pressure building up on spot European billet premiums amid weaker demand, increased supply and softening of US Sanctions against UC Rusal. | HARBOR's Veracruz P1020 ingot spot transaction premium (VEP FCA) declined today to a one-year low. Attractive netbacks in the US market are constraining availability of off-shore units in Mexico.
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (every semester)
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (every semester)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Executive report with the latest intelligence, analysis, outlook and forecasts on aluminum ingot and billet premiums around the globe. Gives you quarterly premiums forecasts for each region and a trade map to better identify sourcing/selling opportunities and premiums risks.
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Premiums Landscape & 2018 Outlook - World Compendium
World Aluminum Premiums in 2018...

4. US ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS (MONTHLY)

US Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence (monthly)
US Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, cansheet, autosheet & foil). Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the a
LATEST ISSUE :
Common Alloy Price Rally Continues, Little Relief Until After 2020
HARBOR continues to forecast a US supply shortage of common alloy sheet of 155 kmton in 2019 and 50 kmton in 2020, which represents about a 7% supply shortage in 2019 when compared to demand and 2% in 2020.

5. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intel (weekly)
Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intel (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
USA: Basically no annual scrap deals for 2019 taking place at this point.
Our models suggest US aluminum scrap generation (new and obsolete) and domestic availability is on track to increase by at least 400 kmton this year to 5.6 million mton, an all-time high.
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.
LATEST ISSUE :
US: Scrap Dealers Wishing for Very Cold and Snowy Weather Next Year! | Mexico: Two-Tier Secondary Foundry Alloy Business Becoming More Evident.
As aluminum scrap continues to flow at record volumes, dealers have a dilemma finding consumer homes. We asked scrap yards if anything has changed this week.

6. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices — both globally and regionally.
LATEST ISSUE :
Softening of US Sanctions Against UC Rusal Reinforce our View of a Price Correction Ahead.
Australia alumina spot prices spiked above... per mton earlier this month due to supply issues. | The strike at AWAC is a significant event as the company is the world’s biggest supplier of alumina to the third party market. However, impact on production has been minimal so far, and our view is that the strike may not last long.

7. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q2 2018)
Global primary aluminum production cash costs have continued to increase and reached in January the highest level in almost five year. In January, global average smelting cash cost reached a 58-month high of $1,782 per mton, up 6% m/m, to their highest level since March 2013. Production costs have continued to increase mainly on the back of high carbon product prices, and energy costs (coal prices in China and spot electricity prices in Europe and the USA.

Nevertheless, 87% of primary aluminum global operating capacity continues to make money. In ROW, 1.4 million mtpy of capacity operated underwater in January as the average cash profit stood at 24% (nearly a six-year high)...
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q2 2018)
HARBOR estimates that in January, the average world metallurgical alumina cash cost of production decreased 1% m/m, to $292 per mton. Production cash costs are 14% higher than a year ago, the slowest annual pace increase in the last 18 months.

Production costs are slightly down from a 5-year high reached in November mostly as caustic soda prices have decreased slightly. HARBOR estimates that 94% of the global industry is cash profitable at today’s prices of $389 per mton; 62% of capacity covers total costs vs 65% the prior month...
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.
LATEST ISSUE :
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q2 2018)
HARBOR estimates that global average bauxite production cash costs decreased 4% Q/Q in Q4 2017 as a result of higher energy and material prices. Global bauxite production cash costs stand at $13.4 per mton, 4% higher than a year ago...