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MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM PRICE FORECASTS

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Market to Experience in 2019-2020 the Biggest Surplus in a Decade
The Western World primary aluminum market is already in surplus, embarked on a shift towards the biggest marketsurplusin a decade. | Primary demand keeps weakening and is set to remain subdued. Western World primary demand grew only 0.5% in 2018 and is projected to increase by only 1.6% in 2019.
Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.
LATEST ISSUE :
World Primary Aluminum Production Growing and Set to Boom in 2019
World primary aluminum production is set to expand briskly in 2019 after little growth in 2018… Indeed, HARBOR expects world primary aluminum production to increase in 2019 by 4.9% y/y or 3.2 million mton, accelerating sharply from an expansion of 0.8% y/y or 0.5 million mton in 2018.

2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

Aluminum LME Price Outlook (monthly)
Aluminum LME Price Outlook (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.
LATEST ISSUE :
Prices Bound to Revisit Two-Year Lows amid Bearish Fundamentals
High odds still seen for prices to revisit $1,770 per mton as demand, supply and cost drivers remain bearish.
Aluminum Strategic Buying Signals (occasional)
Aluminum Strategic Buying Signals (occasional)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
A one-page report with the most relevant intelligence to evaluate the attractiveness of locking in LME aluminum prices at a given point in time. It will help you assess price value, buying risks, and timing to execute.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR’s Model Signals...
HARBOR’s model suggests locking inat least half of open metal needs as...

3. ALUMINUM REGIONAL PREMIUMS (DAILY)

Daily Aluminum LME & Premiums Intel (includes Alerts)
Sample-Daily Aluminum LME & Premiums
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and off-grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.
LATEST ISSUE :
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Technicals weaken further for LME prices; European P1020 premiums up to a month high; Arconic TN to expand common alloy and autosheet processing capabilities
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
REPORT DESCRIPTION
An executive, in-a-nutshell summary of the most significant world’s aluminum premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBOR’s relevant intelligence, premium assessment movements and analysis by region, including 1020, purity and VAP premiums.
LATEST ISSUE :
What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?
US MW P1020 ALERT. US MW Duty-Paid spot premium falls as discounts under journalistic premiums widen t | European Q2 contractual premiums declining; three-tier premium billet market has developed as oversupply bites. | BRAZIL PREMIUM UPDATE. Spot P1020 premiums decline as demand remains subdued. Trader now offering Chinese billet units.
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (every semester)
Aluminum Premiums Outlook (every semester)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Executive report with the latest intelligence, analysis, outlook and forecasts on aluminum ingot and billet premiums around the globe. Gives you quarterly premiums forecasts for each region and a trade map to better identify sourcing/selling opportunities and premiums risks.
LATEST ISSUE :
Aluminum Premiums Landscape & 2018 Outlook - World Compendium
World Aluminum Premiums in 2018...

4. US ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS (MONTHLY)

US Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence (monthly)
US Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, cansheet, autosheet & foil). Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the a
LATEST ISSUE :
US Common Alloy Sheet Conversion Prices to Peak in Q3 2019
US Common alloy aluminum conversion prices expected to continue to rise further but peak in Q3 2019 on weaker US demand, US domestic expansions, growing non-Chinese imports and massive Section 232 exemptions.

5. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intel (weekly)
Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intel (weekly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.
LATEST ISSUE :
USA: First inflow into NASAAC system in three months, one major participant probably behind it.
On February 5th, the NASAAC system registered an inflow of 1,000 mton in New Orleans warehouses. This was the first inflow since November 2018 and the largest since September 2018.
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
North America Scrap Lights (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.
LATEST ISSUE :
US Market: Have Aluminum Scrap Prices Hit Bottom? |Mexican Market: Scrap units flowing to off-shore alternative homes; Margins for secondaries narrow.
Good-quality scrap prices seem near to bottom. We currently have three major grades of aluminum scrap, UBCs, Auto sheet scrap and Auto shredded scrap (zorba/twitch) that are being sold at around 50% of the value of primary aluminum.

6. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices — both globally and regionally.
LATEST ISSUE :
Alumina Market Will Shift to Surplus in 2019 on Booming Production
Alumina spot prices have practically reached our previously identified $350 per mton target. Prices could fall as low as $250 per mton at some point in the next 12 months assuming Alunorte refinery restarts curtailed production this year.

7. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q4 2018)
Global primary aluminum production cash costs have continued to increase and reached in January the highest level in almost five year. In January, global average smelting cash cost reached a 58-month high of $1,782 per mton, up 6% m/m, to their highest level since March 2013. Production costs have continued to increase mainly on the back of high carbon product prices, and energy costs (coal prices in China and spot electricity prices in Europe and the USA.

Nevertheless, 87% of primary aluminum global operating capacity continues to make money. In ROW, 1.4 million mtpy of capacity operated underwater in January as the average cash profit stood at 24% (nearly a six-year high)...
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q4 2018)
HARBOR estimates that in January, the average world metallurgical alumina cash cost of production decreased 1% m/m, to $292 per mton. Production cash costs are 14% higher than a year ago, the slowest annual pace increase in the last 18 months.

Production costs are slightly down from a 5-year high reached in November mostly as caustic soda prices have decreased slightly. HARBOR estimates that 94% of the global industry is cash profitable at today’s prices of $389 per mton; 62% of capacity covers total costs vs 65% the prior month...
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)
REPORT DESCRIPTION
Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.
LATEST ISSUE :
HARBOR's Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q4 2018)
HARBOR estimates that global average bauxite production cash costs decreased 4% Q/Q in Q4 2017 as a result of higher energy and material prices. Global bauxite production cash costs stand at $13.4 per mton, 4% higher than a year ago...