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USTR addressing “Chinese and Canadian problems” (bullish MW premium); LME price extends gains above $1,600 per mton; US Billet premiums gap up


Executive Summary

1. LME prices at a one-week high, a positive close tomorrow could accelerate rally toward $1,670 per mton.

2. MW PREMIUM ALERT. USTR Lighthizer acknowledged today the “Canadian Problem” and hinted a change is coming. Whatever the change is, we see it as bullish for MW duty-paid premium.

3. LME Cash-3M contango widens from three-month lows as July tightness recedes (supports premiums).

4. US BILLET ALERT. US billet premiums jump from record lows, as demand recovery kick- starts normalization of market conditions.

5. SPAIN ALUMINUM ALERT. Alcoa closer to shut down the last smelter in Spain.

6. China's aluminum prices nearly test four-month high again.

More details in full report.