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LME price down to three-week lows; US value-add product upcharges vulnerable to new US duties on Russian aluminum


1. LME prices fell to fresh three-week lows below $3,400 per mton as Fed unveils plans for aggressive monetary tightening and demand weakens. Next support target remains at $... per mton.

2. China’s aluminum prices fall to a three-week low, testing interim technical support.

3. US MW PREMIUM ALERT. MORE DUTIES COMING, BULLISH PREMIUMS: US product upcharges (more so) and MW P1020 premiums (less so) could spike further as the US is set to impose duties on Russian aluminum units.

4. ALERT! – WORLD ALUMINUM. Aluminum associations do not call for sanctions on Russian aluminum but support economic sanctions

5. US PFA ALERT. STRATEGIC POSITIONING? Short-term PFA demand may be contracting, but early 2023 consumer inquiries are emerging.

6. EUROPE SLAB ALERT. SPIKE AHEAD? Unconfirmed slab spot transactions may be pointing to higher premiums ahead.

7. EUROPEAN BILLET ALERT. UNCHANGED: Spot billet premiums consolidating between $... per mton range.

To see our full European Billet Market Intel and Premiums assessment, please subscribe to our specialized European Billet Intelligence Report.

8. US EC 1350 SCRAP ALERT. RISING DEMAND: EC wire scrap discount stands at the tightest so far this year.

For more details, please subscribe to our specialized US and Mexico Aluminum Scrap Intelligence Report.

9. MEXICO SCRAP ALERT. MKT LONG OLD CAST: Mexican secondaries finding plenty of old cast volume available.

For more details, please subscribe to our specialized US and Mexico Aluminum Scrap Intelligence Report.

10. ROLLING MILL ALERT. ALUMINUM CAN REVOLUTION 2.0 EFFECT: Constellium planning significant cansheet output expansion in the US and Europe.

For more details, please subscribe to our specializedAluminum Rolled Products Intelligence Report.

11. GREEN ALUMINUM ALERT. SUPER GREEN SLAB EXPANSIONS: Constellium to increase recycling capacity by... k mtpy by 2024; another... k mtpy expansion expected beyond 2025.

12. LME Cash–3M contango narrows slightly while live warrants drop to new multidecade lows.