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US SHORTAGE: Insufficient Common Alloy Coil Supply, Even More Bullish

1. Common alloy aluminum sheet/coil conversion prices have rallied as much as... % over cyclical lows reached in early-to-mid 2020.

2. US demand is expected to grow further in 2021 and reach... kmton; driven by bullish B&C and Truck/Trailer market forecasts.

3. US production of common alloy aluminum sheet/coil is expected to increase... % to... kmton in 2021 and remain way short of demand.

4. Imports are expected to fall further in 2021 to... kmton, down roughly... % from 2020 levels.

5. HARBOR forecasts a US deficit of nearly... kmton will emerge in 2021, as domestic production of... kmton, along with imports of nearly... kmton, will not satisfy the expected demand of... kmton.

6. HARBOR expects US Common alloy sheet/coil conversion prices to rise further amid solid demand, US production nearing capacity, and further waning imports ahead of final determinations on AD/CV duties.