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MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM PRICE FORECASTS

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.
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Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices testing support at $1,850 per mton; Major NA scrap consumers out of the spot market until April; LME contango the widest in five months
Daily Aluminum Commentary
MW Duty-Unpaid spot premium down to 8.0 cent/lb; European foundry (PFA and SFA) and billet markets keep softeninglities
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Declines continue as LME closes at a one-month low; China’s aluminum exports reach another all-time high; MW duty-paid premium gaps down to a ten-month low
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Technicals weaken further for LME prices; European P1020 premiums up to a month high; Arconic TN to expand common alloy and autosheet processing capabilities
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Door open for $1,770 per mton; MW duty-unpaid P1020 premium down to one-month low of 8.2 cent/lb
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Break below $1,880 per mton opens door for $1,770; China reports biggest aluminum buildup in four years
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
US MW P1020 ALERT. US MW Duty-Paid spot premium falls as discounts under journalistic premiums widen t | European Q2 contractual premiums declining; three-tier premium billet market has developed as oversupply bites.
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Door for $1,770 per mton could be opened next week; European Q2 billet premiums falling as oversupply increases
Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intelligence
USA: First inflow into NASAAC system in three months, one major participant probably behind it.
Aluminium LME Price Outlook
Prices Bound to Revisit Two-Year Lows amid Bearish Fundamentals Aluminum LME Price Outlook
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Declines continue as prices head to $1,880 per mton; “Mother of all squeezes” continues to develop as more metal is canceled
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices down on fresh selling; CME MW duty-paid P1020 financials for H2 2019 down to 17.2 cent/lb; Wire rod offshore imports and premiums to rise ahead
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Price locked in the $1,880-$1,930 range as longs and shorts exit; Large cancelations resumed in LME Malaysia (as anticipated); Chinese billet now offered in Brazil
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME range trading continues; Risk of steeper backs prompts inflows in LME Malaysia; European foundry premiums gap down
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices down as China and Germany contract; MW premiums fall below 18.0 cent/lb; European billet premiums down again
Aluminum Production Intelligence
World Primary Aluminum Production Growing and Set to Boom in 2019
Aluminum Intelligence Report
Aluminum Market to Experience in 2019-2020 the Biggest Surplus in a Decade
Alumina Intelligence Special Report
Downward Trend in Alumina Prices to Continue Ahead
Aluminium LME Price Outlook
Prices Plummet to HARBOR’s Forecasted Price Target; Break Below $1,770, Opens $1,510 Aluminum LME Price Outlook
Aluminum Production Intelligence
World Aluminum Production to Expand Briskly As 2019 Begins
US ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS INTELLIGENCE
Cansheet Conversion Prices to Remain Flat in 2019, UBC Record Discounts Boost Mill Profitability
Alumina Intelligence Special Report
Alumina Prices To Decline Further; Chinese Winter Cuts Fall Short of Last Year’s
Aluminum Intelligence Report
The Most Significant Loosening of Market Conditions in Ten Years Expected for 2019-2020
Aluminium LME Price Outlook
Leading Indicators Remain Bearish for LME Prices Aluminum LME Price Outlook
Aluminum Production Intelligence
US Restarts Driving Global Production Growth in 2018; Middle East to Take the Lead in 2019
US ALUMINUM ROLLED PRODUCTS INTELLIGENCE
2019 Foil Conversion Prices Increase on Continued Supply Deficit
Aluminium LME Price Outlook
LME Price Decline Targeting the $1,880–$1,770-per-mton Zone (as expected) Aluminum LME Price Outlook
Alumina Intelligence Special Report
Alumina Spot Prices Targeting $350 in 2019 as Production Growth Triples
Aluminum Intelligence Report
ROW's Primary Demand Suffering from Scrap Abundance and Booming Chinese Semis Exports
Aluminum Production Intelligence
World’s Production Growth Set to Double in 2019 Despite Potential Curtailments in Europe
Aluminium LME Price Outlook
LME Prices Yet To Discount Weaker Demand Growth, Easing Supply Risks, and Falling Costs
Alumina Intelligence Special Report
Alumina Price to Fall Towards $450 in the Short Term and to $350 in 2019
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices fall the most in five months as Hydro announces it is ready to restart 50% of Alunorte; MW P1020 Duty-Paid Premium ticks up
Aluminum Intelligence Report
Downgrading our Demand Forecasts on Cannibalization, Production Growth to Double in 2019
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices close below key technical level; MW duty-paid spot premium weak despite historically bullish season
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices decline sharply after testing our $2,280 target zone; Chinese cable exports to Brazil cannibalizing domestic wire rod demand
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices break above key resistance and target $2,285 per mton on Alunorte; MJP spot premiums firm up but upside seems capped
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices rally as oil prices reach a four-year-high; CME MW financials for H1 2019 down to 18.5 cent/lb
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Alumina spot prices fall the most in over 12 years; New NAFTA deal excludes Section 232 concessions (as anticipated); LME live warrants plunge to a twelve-year low
Daily Aluminum Commentary
China’s aluminum prices close below a key support threshold; MJP Q4 2018 premium declines to $103 per mton; Portugal P1020 premiums facing downward pressure
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME and SHFE prices down on Chinese demand concerns and less-stringent winter production cuts; LME Cash–3M contango tightens as LME live inventories reach new decade lows
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices stagnant below $2,100 per mton; LME contango narrows further as inventories fall below 1 million mton; MW duty-paid financials for H1 2019 up to 18.88 cent/lb
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices rise amid weak trading volumes but face resistance; Alumina spot prices remain in correction mode
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices fall back amid further softening of US Sanctions against UC Rusal
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
Poland and Turkey billet premiums down amid confluence of factors. Korean-origin billet being aggressively marketed for H1 2019. | Mexico spot billet premiums jump on lack of readily available units.
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices up to two-week highs near $2,100 per mton; SHFE prices above key support as inventories fall; Brazil P1020 premiums decline further while billet production is set to increase ahead
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices stabilize below $2,050; LME ’back’ intensifies ahead of January; World production continues to accelerate
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME Cash prices down to five-month lows; CME MW duty-paid financials for H1 2019 drop to 17.79 cent/lb
Daily Aluminum Commentary
SHFE prices trigger bearish technical signal; LME price stable as market digests significant softening of US Sanctions; European billet premiums show some softness
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME cash prices fall below $2,000 per mton and alumina supply risks diminish amid significant softening of US sanctions against UC Rusal; MW P1020 Duty-Paid Premium falls to a five-month low
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
Some European billet capacity switching to slab to address market tightness in light of US Sanctions. P1020 premiums firm up. | European P1020 spot premiums slightly up amid
supportive LME contango...
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices fall back to low end of prevailing range; New cancelations in Asia and Europe
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices trading below $2,075 per mton; China’s aluminum prices still testing key support; LME Cash–3M contango narrows but remains above $30 per mton
Daily Aluminum Commentary
China to raise export VAT rebate for some aluminum products; More Section 232 exclusion requests for billet; More US wire rod units heard being marketed for 2019
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices fall the most in five months; US and India reported holding trade talks; LME Cash–3M contango widens to fresh three-year-highs
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices revert losses amid market talk of potential aluminum production cuts in Russia; Several Section 232 exclusion requests (mainly for FRP) could be approved soon amid process updates
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
NORTH AMERICA: HARBOR’s MW P1020 Ingot Duty-Paid Premium falls to fourmonth low. LATIN AMERICA: Brazil P1020 and billet spot premiums unchanged as domestic demand remains subdued.
Daily Aluminum Commentary
US EC wire rod 2019 contract premiums expected to increase; However, spot premiums expected to decline next year
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices fall to a three-week low (tomorrow is key); Section 232 requests filed for high purity and billet; Cash–3M contango at its widest in almost three years; Brazilian premiums unchanged on poor demand
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices find some support as US dollar eases; More Section 232 exclusion requests posted for billet and sheet
Daily Aluminum Commentary
Slowdown continues for world manufacturing activity; LME & SHFE prices down to a two-week low; LME Cash–3M contango widest in eleven-months; HARBOR’s MW P1020 Duty-Paid down to four-month low
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
EUROPE: Poland billet premiums up but Spanish and Turkish billet markets seen slightly weaker. Some extruders not sure about removal of Sanctions against UC Rusal.
Aluminum Intelligence Report
Section 232, Sanctions and Trade Wars Reinforce Downside for Aluminum Demand & LME Prices
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices close August below key resistance level; Poland billet premiums up; Spain and Turkey billet markets lose some steam; Latest intel on Mexico’s P1020 and billet mating season
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices fall sharply and below key level; LME Detroit almost runs out of metal amid biggest cancelation in two years; WH proclamation may signal Section 232 quotas for Canada and Mexico (potentially bullish MW premium
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices testing key resistance level (how week ends could determine if ... per mton is next target); Alumina spot prices spike again amid market tightness
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices rallied toward... per mton target; Brazil P1020 premiums down amid poor spot demand
Aluminum Production Intelligence
World's Production of Aluminum to Expand Briskly during Next Fifteen Months
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
EUROPE: European P1020 spot premiums slightly up from one-year lows amid supportive LME spreads ahead of October and some spot demand pick up after the summer seasonal slowdown.
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices targeting... per mton; LME inventories down to eleven-year lows
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices continue to range trade; ROW’s alumina market could turn into a surplus position amid potential expansion in India
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME and SHFE prices continue to range trade
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices unchanged amid weaker US dollar; China's SHFE closes above key price level; HARBOR MW Duty-Unpaid Premium remains below ...
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
USA: HARBOR’s MW P1020 Ingot Duty-Paid Supplier-Supplier Premium falls to... amid a confluence of factors. EUROPE: Portugal’s billet premiums increase slightly, while most southern European spot billet market is quiet du
Daily Aluminum Commentary
World aluminum production growth accelerates; HARBOR’s VEP FCA P1020 spot premium falls to a new low; US UBC discounts hold near record highs
Aluminum LME Price Outlook
Expecting Range Trading in Short Term, Lower Prices in ...
Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intelligence
USA: Primary scrap discounts remain at record highs, fewer homes available. | Mexico: Chinese SFA exports to Mexico expected to grow in 2019.
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices testing technical support; MW duty-paid financials for Sept–Dec 2018 up to... cent/lb
US Rolling Mill Update
Braidy Industries announces selection of EPC contractor, equipment and furnace suppliers
HARBOR Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices plunge along with the commodity complex; Watch out for a potential breach of key support at ...; HARBOR’s MW Duty-Unpaid Premium down to...
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices fall and test support at $2,075; MW duty-paid financials for H1 2019 at 17.75 cent/lb (steep “back” persists)
Aluminum LME Price Outlook
Expecting Range Trading in Short Term, Lower Prices in 2019-2020
Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary
US spot billet market remains subdued, offshore imports still growing strong.
Daily Aluminum Commentary
US doubling Section 232 duties on Turkish aluminum; falling spot premiums across Brazil, Japan and Europe; LME prices remain below key resistance zone
European P1020 Premiums Special Alert
European P1020 spot premiums drop to a one-year low in a context of tighter LME spreads and muted spot demand
MJP Premiums Special Alert
MJP spot premium falls further amid tight LME spreads and booming Chinese aluminum semis exports
Daily Aluminum Commentary
MJP P1020 spot premium down to one-year low; US EC wire rod spot demand subdued; LME prices plummet after hitting technical resistance
Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intelligence
China to impose 25% tariffs on all US-origin scrap commodities. Bearish US domestic scrap prices.
Daily Aluminum Commentary
LME prices jump to a one-month high amid talk of potential output cuts in China, Australia and Russia; China’s aluminum semis exports at record highs amid open arbitrage
North America Scrap Lights
USA: Aluminum Scrap to Infinity and Beyond | Mexico: US imports of Mexican UBCs declining for the first time since 2015.
Aluminum Intelligence
World’s primary aluminum market surplus downgraded for 2018. We estimate that the world’s primary aluminum market registered in Q2 a deficit of 0.57 million mton which offset the prior quarter’s surplus of ...
US Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence 
US Foil Market – Price Frenzy Subsides, Suppliers Remain In The Driver’s Seat