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Prices fall to multi-decade support levels as demand declines, supply glut worsens, and arbitrage to import from China widens


Executive Summary

1. LME PRICE ALERT. LME Cash prices fell today $... per mton to $... per mton (HARBOR's price target). Cancelation and roll back of some billet, foundry, slab, and wire rod contracts expected to translate into more P1020 production and LME stockpiling.

2. LME aluminum inventories spike again in Asia; more inflows imminent amid spot demand collapse.

3. LME Cash-3M contango widens toward a three-week high; longer term contangos remain supportive.

4. ALUMINUM PRODUCTION UPDATE. World primary aluminum production expands so far in Q1 2020, but downside risks are expected ahead amid spreading coronavirus.

5. US ALUMINUM UPDATE. Some US states shutting down non-life sustaining businesses aluminum demand will be hit.

6. China’s aluminum prices remain near a four-year low; arbitrage window for semis exports to the Western World widening.

More details in full report.