1. LME prices rallied $… per mton today as the Fed opened the door for interest rate cuts in September; HARBOR sees LME prices targeting $… per mton before year-end.
LME 3M aluminum rallied 1.5% or $… per mton today, closing at $… per mton. Prices posted their strongest daily gain in two weeks as the Federal Reserve Chairman signaled a possible…
2. SPECIAL ALERT! – US SECTION 232. HERE TO STAY: “There will be no exemptions, nor exclusions for aluminum tariffs”.
Yesterday, a key US government official stated that no exemptions nor exclusions for aluminum tariffs will take place. Indeed, the current US Administration sees that exemptions have been “abused” before and thus these undermine the objective of the Tariffs. In fact, the US is doubling down on S232 as more than 100 derivative aluminum articles were added to the new S232 regime this week. HARBOR continues to see the US MW P1020 Duty-Paid Spot Premium trending toward… cent/lb in Q4 2025 and… cent/lb in 2026.
3. ALERT! – US BILLET. FRESH HIGHS: US billet spot upcharge reaches… cent/lb.
US spot billet upcharges rise further with US billet producers benefitting the most, while still elevated interest rate environment keeps weighting down on residential B&C sector demand.
4. ALERT! – EUROPEAN BILLET. RETURN: EU extruders set to return to operations next week, outlook improving.
To see our full European Billet Market Intel and Premiums assessment, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “European Billet Intelligence” reports.
5. ALERT! – US AND MEXICO EXTRUSION SCRAP. RECORD AFTER RECORD: US extrusion scrap discounts set new record high.
For more details, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “US and Mexico Aluminum Scrap Intelligence” report.
6. LME Cash-3M spread tightens to a $2 per mton backwardation (bearish P1020 premiums).
The Cash-3M spread tightened to the steepest backwardation in a month, closing today at a $… per mton backwardation from yesterday’s $… per mton contango. The Cash-September spread shifted to a $… per mton backwardation …
7. China’s aluminum price extends gains amid improved demand sentiment.
SHFE front-month aluminum prices edged higher by… % to… yuan per mton ($… per mton, ex-VAT) , extending gains in after-hours to… yuan per mton ($… per mton, ex-VAT). Prices found support from higher oil, a…