1. LME price climbs to fresh three-and-a-half-year high as $… per mton zone gets closer.
LME 3M aluminum climbed to as high as $… per mtonbefore closing the session at $… per mton, up $… per mton or … % from yesterday. Prices rebounded from an intraday low of $… per mton amid underlying optimism over a potential Trump–Xi deal on Thursday and a weaker…
We expect LME prices in 2026 to average $… per mton,as discussed in more detail in our Aluminum Price Outlook Report issued last week.
In April, HARBOR anticipated that LME prices would rally to the $2,700-2,750 per mton zone before the end of 2025, and they did.
2. ALERT! – US MW PREMIUM. ANOTHER ALL-TIME RECORD: MW transactional premium rises to fresh record-high of… cent/lb.
HARBOR’s MW duty-paid premium gaps up to fresh record highs on the back of spiking LME prices, declining US inventories, and strong conviction of the permanence of Section 232 at 50% with no exemptions. As predicted since May, the MW premium has reached our forecasted target for Q4 2025 and continues to approach our… cent/lb target zone for 2026.
3. SPECIAL ANALYSIS! – POTENTIAL SMELTER CLOSURE. NO SHORT-TERM IMPACT: Rio Tinto mulls closure of Australia’s largest aluminum smelter.
Tomago Aluminum is contemplating shutting down its… mtpy primary aluminum smelter in Australia after its electricity supply contract expires in December…
4. ALERT! – US WHEELS. TOTALLY DECOUPLED: Wheel discounts surge to record of… cent/lb under MWTP.
For more details, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “US and Mexico Aluminum Scrap Intelligence” report.
5. The LME Cash-3M backwardation narrows to one-week lows; far-end contangos tighten sharply.
The Cash-3M backwardation narrowed to $… per mton, from $… per mton on Monday. The Cash-November backwardation continued easing to $…
6. China’s aluminum prices hold around HARBOR’s target zone.
SHFE front-month aluminum prices closed today’s session down… % at… yuan per mton ($… per mton, ex-VAT), before trimming losses in after-hours to…