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MW premium financials jump amid growing number of bullish signals; LME price range trades around $1,600


Executive Summary

1. LME prices range-trades above $1,600 per mton.

2. CME MW duty-paid financials for Q4 2020 jump to a three-month high of 12.00 cent/lb amid USTR’s remarks on the “Canadian Problem”.

3. US MW PREMIUM ALERT. MW premium up amid strong demand from traders and banks and USTR talk about the "Canadian Problem."

4. MW PREMIUM ALERT. US Trade Representative (USTR) remarks before the US Senate lead HARBOR to believe that removal of the Canadian exemption is more likely than previously thought.

5. US FOUNDRY ALERT. Foundry consumers operating rates up to 40%, expecting 60% before the end of July.

6. FOUNDRY EXPANSION ALERT. Rusal raises foundry capacity by 120 kmtpy.

7. LME Cash-July backwardation intensifies as June shorts get squeezed; Cash–3M contango remains supportive for spot P1020 premiums.

8. China's aluminum prices fall from yesterday’s near-four-month high.

More details in full report.