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LME price reaches cycle peak zone that has prevailed for the past ten years; SHFE price spike seen as “irrational” by Chinese producers as demand growth stalls


1. SHFE aluminum prices at fourteen-year highs amid additional production curbs. However, manufacturing activity weakens and stands at the brink of contraction.

2. CHINA PRICE ALERT. INTERVENTION WORRIES: Chinese producers see SHFE price spike as “irrational.”

3. LME PRICE ALERT. CYCLE PEAK ZONE: LME reaches price range where the prior two bull markets ended.

4. LME live warrants in Vlissingen dry out amid large cancelations across Europe and Asia.

5. LME Cash–3M backwardation eases from three-year highs, but nearby shorts continue to get squeezed.