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LME price rallies toward $1,600 per mton on growing signs of demand recovery


Executive Summary

1. LME prices rally back toward $1,600 per mton on Fed stimulus news and positive US economic data; $1,670 per mton remains as the current target.

2. US ALUMINUM DEMAND ALERT. US home builders’ confidence jumps sharply in June amid views of a V-shape recovery in construction activity.

3. US BILLET UPDATE. Extrusion demand up 20% m/m so far June, billet demand and premium normalization in progress.

4. US DOWNSTREAM INDUSTRY ALERT. US aluminum mills, extruders, and remelters seen with a $600 million profit hit amid collapse of the MW premium that followed the Canadian exemption.

5. LME Cash-3M contango remains attractive despite early-July tightness, LME inventories up now by 44k mton.

6. China's aluminum prices climb back to near four-month highs.

More details in full report.