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LME price down further but support holds at $1,800 per mton; MW premium up amid return of full contango


Executive Summary

1. Support holds at $1,800 per mton for LME prices despite oil price correction.

2. US MW PREMIUM ALERT. Return of full contango and higher LME prices push up MW premiums; however, oversupply of North American aluminum units widens discounts for off-grade units and decreases upcharge for purity levels.

3. LME Cash–3M contango holds above $30 per mton amid a reduced concentration of warrant holdings (supportive for spot premiums).

4. BRAZIL P1020 UPDATE. Six-month P1020 tariff free import quota extension expected to be announced soon; domestic demand still subdued.

5. ALUMINUM PRODUCTION UPDATE. 300 kmtpy primary aluminum expansion in Iran delivers its first liquid metal.

6. HARBOR’s Implicit Green Aluminum Upcharge assessed today at zero.

7. China’s aluminum prices keep facing interim resistance around... yuan per mton.

More details in full report.