LME posts largest q/q rally since 2017; Massive secondary billet capacity to hit the US

1. LME PRICE ALERT. BEARISH CICLICALITY AHEAD: Cooling demand growth bearish for LME prices, but not until Russian psychological boost fades.

2. LME prices remain well supported despite softer manufacturing data; technically continue to target a revisit of $... per mton.

3. SHFE aluminum prices down to a one-week low amid demand concerns.

4. US BILLET ALERT. 500 KMTON OF NEW SECONDARY BILLET EXPANSIONS: Hydro to build new secondary billet plant in Michigan by...

5. EUROPE PFA ALERT. HIGHER AHEAD: PFA spot and 2022 contractual premiums seen vulnerable to spike.

6. RERUN: ALUMINUM PREMIUMS ALERT. MARKET IGNORING LIKELY RUSSIAN EXPORT TAX IMPACT: MW and Rotterdam forward curves offer strategic value even if tax is suspended.

For more details, please see our new “ALERT-ALUMINUM PREMIUMS” released earlier today.

7. LME backwardation at the far end of the curve remains steep, Cash–3M contango still relatively wide.

More details in full report.