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Backwardation steepens to double digits (bearish spot premiums); European spot and Q1 2020 billet premiums fall further

Executive Summary

1. LME prices face technical resistance at our expected target zone ($1,820–$1,850 per mton).

2. LME Cash–3M backwardation intensifies to double digits (bearish for premiums).

3. HARBOR’s Implicit Green Aluminum Upcharge assessed today at zero, unchanged from yesterday’s assessment.

4. EUROPEAN BILLET UPDATE. Billet spot and Q1 premiums down to as low as... per mton; the low end of spot premiums falls in Northern Europe, Poland, UK, and Italy.

5. China’s aluminum prices hover around important technical threshold.

More details in full report.