Hat-Trick Forecast, Extreme Metal Tightness & Cycle Peak

KEY MESSAGES

• It was a Hat-Trick forecast. HARBOR’s LME price forecast of $2,200 per mton predicted last year for Q1 2021, turned out to be spot on in terms of direction, level, and timing. HARBOR was the only consultancy that called the LME price bottom in May 2020— when the market was trading at $1,460 per mton—and subsequently forecasted a $2,200 per mton target for Q1 2021.
   

• Why the strong rally: a) a strong bounce...
   

• The physical aluminum market has tightened considerably since last June. The market is in a deficit position and...
   

• Our Price View. In the very short term, LME prices are vulnerable to profit taking and...
   

• About the Cycle Peak. Further ahead in the cycle, we do see prices rallying above $... per mton and to as high as $... per mton, perhaps before May 2022.