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LME's weekly rally confirms $1,840 per mton as next target by year’s end; Foundry premiums up along with demand recovery


Executive Summary

1. LME PRICE ALERT. LME 3M aluminum prices bounced back on Friday to $1,688 per mton, which is within HARBOR's price target zone, surging by 5% this week. Technical indicators suggest increasing odds of $1,840 per mton before the end of the year.

2. LME SEPCIAL ANALYIS. Off-warrant inventories reported to the LME are only one-tenth of what really exists.

3. LME Cash–3M contango widens from a one-week low; longer-term contangos tightened this week amid apparent producer selling.

4. NORTH AMERICA PFA ALERT. US and Mexico PFA spot premiums jump as high as 7.0 cent/lb, as market demand normalization continues.

5. China's aluminum price rally gathers momentum and nearly reaches January’s peak.

More details in full report.