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European and MJP P1020 premiums plunge; LME price falls toward $1,740 per mton support

Executive Summary

1. LME prices down, approaching support at $1,740 per mton; a stronger US dollar and LME inventory buildups are pressuring down prices. 

2. LME Cash–3M spread returns to backwardation, inventory buildups in Asia as anticipated. 

3. EUROPEAN P1020 ALERT. European P1020 premiums fall to ten-month lows amid sharp backwardation, growing oversupply of units, contracting demand, and plummeting MW premiums.

4. EUROPEAN BILLET ALERT. Q1 billet contractual premiums fall to a fresh low; P1020 billet offered by European producers; scrap dealers in Italy offering orphan billet units.

5. MJP spot premium falls to a one-year low of $63-$68 per mton following premium declines around the world. 

6. MW Duty-Unpaid P1020 premium down to an eight-week low of... cent/lb. 

7. HARBOR’s Implicit Green Aluminum Upcharge assessed today at zero, unchanged from yesterday’s assessment. 

8. SECONDARY ALUMINUM ALERT. Demand for secondary aluminum to remain lackluster and prices depressed. 

9. China’s aluminum prices down to two-week lows amid trade-related uncertainty. 

More details in full report.