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LME plunge continues as door opens for $... per mton; Chinese aluminum exports reach a record... million mtpy run rate


1. ALERT! – LME PRICE OUTLOOK. PLUNGE CONTINUES… AS EXPECTED: Door is now technically open for $... per mton, resistance now seen at $... per mton.

2. CHINA EXPORTS UPDATE. Chinese exports of aluminum (including semis and primary/secondary) surged in April to a new all-time high amid open arbitrage, as anticipated by HARBOR. Booming Chinese exports cannibalize primary aluminum demand in the Western World, which is bearish for LME prices and FRP conversion prices.

3. China’s aluminum prices confirm a new downward target, extend decline to new four-month lows.

4. LME Cash–3M contango at the widest since October 2020 (bearish sign for LME prices); far end backwardations continue to ease.