Aluminum Premiums Outlook Update (October 14, 2019)

Executive Summary

USA

1. (From October 10). MW spot premium declines to 16.22–16.33 cent/lb as discounts under journalistic references widen.

HARBOR's US MW P1020 Ingot Duty-Paid Consumer-Supplier Spot Transaction Premium declined today to 16.22–16.33 cent/lb from the previous range of 16.30–17.20 cent/lb. MW spot premium falls amid lower LME prices and LME spread tightness: a) LME prices have fallen to a thirty-one-month low and b) LME Cash–3M contango stands at its narrowest point in eight months.

More details in full report.

EUROPE

2. (From October 11). European suppliers push for early Q1 2020 contractual billet negotiations amid growing oversupply.

Some suppliers trying to start 2020 Q1 contract billet negotiations earlier than usual in an effort to gain or at least keep market share in a clearly oversupplied market that could lead to lower contractual premiums. Most extruders do not seem to be in a rush to close 2020 Q1 yet since some are dealing with higher-than-expected billet inventories and expectations that billet premiums could weaken further in the coming weeks/months.

More details in full report.

LATIN AMERICA

3. (From October 9). Brazil spot P1020 premiums decline further amid challenging market conditions.

HARBOR’s transactional spot P1020 ingot premium delivered duty-paid to Sao Paulo (for orders of at least 100 mton) fell today to $190-$230 per mton from $220-$240 per mton amid a practically dead domestic spot demand environment, which has essentially forced suppliers to lower delivered duty-paid premiums below $200 per mton in an effort to allocate units while luring consumers that would otherwise stay on the side considering low domestic capacity utilization levels in both the B&C and automotive markets.

More details in full report.