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World Demand Recovery Well Underway and Further to Run

1. Strong demand recovery with room to run.

2. ROW’s aluminum demand is being boosted by scrap tightness and Chinese imports.

3. Meanwhile, ROW ́s primary aluminum production has reached an all-time high. However, producers expanded remelt ingot (P1020/off-grade) output at the expense of VAPs (slab, billet, and foundry).

4. The steepest H1 2020 plunge in value-add production (VAPs) took place in North America while the smallest decline took place in the Middle East, according to our analysis.

5. ROW’s market surplus peaked in Q2 and will continue to narrow ahead.

6. HARBOR expects LME price rally to continue and reach $... per mton by Q1 2021.