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Aluminum Intelligence Report:
Demand not behind aluminum output cuts...rising premiums and prices 2012		   12-Jan-2012

Global end user aluminum demand resumed growth in December after two months of slight contraction. US growth accelerated further and China returned to growing mode. Overall demand for mill products was resilient outside Europe. Metal moved from private to LME warehouses misleads the “apparent method” calculation. Expect growth to continue in Q1 and 2012. The supply side of the industry is being seriously affected by negative economics and disruptions, not demand contraction. As a result, global capacity is being permanently destroyed in China, North America and even faster in West Europe. Inventories up in Dec, but availability decreased as canceled warrant jumped to record highs. Our proprietary aluminum market balance indicator confirmed market conditions tightened from mid December. Funds started the year covering some of their record short aluminum positions. In 2011, record short positions established by funds drove prices much below equilibrium.Expect rising premiums for ingot and billet. LME should reach...


What is this publication about?
A must-have-intelligence report for those that consider aluminum key for their business. It includes in-depth executive analysis on aluminum output, supply expansions, capacity utilization, industry costs, regional and sector demand, visible and invisible inventories, speculation, and the alumina market. It provides annual aluminum price forecasts up to five years of aluminum demand by region and country, detailed primary and semi aluminum output expansions, and market balance. It also provides HARBOR´s monthly and annual aluminum price forecasts up to 5 years under different currencies, scenarios and regional premiums. Designed with an executive easy-to-read format and our technology go-as deep as you want. It provides all the relevant and latest aluminum market intelligence you need to take wise and objective business decisions. Tailored for purchasing/sales managers, industry executives, market analysts and investors


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Alumina/Bauxite Intelligence Report:
Spot cheaper than term contract prices; challenging demand outlook remains		   1-Feb-2011

Australia spot alumina price bounce mainly on higher aluminum LME prices; spot price is still cheap vs. aluminum. Spot prices increased 4.2% m/m in January to $318 per ton FOB driven mainly by higher aluminum prices (up 12.8% in the same period). Nevertheless, alumina spot prices are still cheap as they are being quoted currently at 14.2% of LME metal price vs. 15.2-16% of contract prices. In China, Non-Chalco prices were slightly down by 2% to $412 per ton. India’s Nalco sold 30,000 tons of alumina at $318 per mton FOB India to Trafigura. The price was $6 per ton higher than Australia export spot price at the time and at 14.7% of LME 3M aluminum price the day of the tender. According to our models, alumina prices may continue to increase on the back of higher aluminum LME prices; support seen at $300. On the one hand, our models suggest we should expect aluminum LME 3M prices to rally in a sustainable basis from Q1 on toward $2,400 per mton (110 cent/lb) before May ends. This will put upward pressure to alumina prices, which our models’ forecast could reach...

What is this publication about?
A must-have intelligence report for those that consider the alumina/bauxite industry key for their business. Produced by HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence’s staff, under the leadership of one of the world´s top alumina/bauxite experts (James F. King), this report includes in-depth analysis on bauxite output (country by country and mine by mine), bauxite output costs, trends in the caustic soda industry, alumina output trends and expansions (country by country, refinery by refinery), trade flows and prices, analysis on the alumina industry and aluminum output expansions (country by country and smelter by smelter). It also provides HARBOR’s monthly and annual regional and benchmark alumina price forecasts up to five years. Designed with an executive easy-to-read format, it provides all the relevant and latest intelligence you need to make timely, informed and objective decisions. This report is tailored for purchasing/sales managers, risk managers, industry executives, market analysts and investors.


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Special HARBOR Aluminum Weekly Analysis:
Be aware that LME buildups are misleading		   23-Jan-2012

Early last week we spoke at Platt´s Aluminum Symposium in Ft. Lauderdale in Florida. The turnover at the conference broke an all time record high according to the organizers. The mood was consistent with healthy and growing demand in all sectors, with the exception of building and construction. Nevertheless, our multiple sources described construction as no longer subtracting from the aluminum demand equation. Transportation was consistently quoted by participants as strong and with expectations of robust rates of growth for the rest of the year. Can sheet demand was described as ...

What is this publication about?
An executive analysis of the most relevant aluminum market and price developments of the week, and their impact on the aluminum price outlook. Provides updated intelligence on global, regional and sector aluminum demand, as well as supply developments, inventory movements, speculation flows, prices, and premiums. Designed with an executive format.


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HARBOR Daily Aluminum Commentary:
Manufacturing growth accelerated in the US, China, India, Japan and Brazil 		  1-Feb-2012

Aluminum LME 3M prices closed the session up 1.3% or $28 per mton (1.3 cent/lb) at $2,266 per mton (102.8 cent/lb). Prices increased today on the back of a weaker US dollar and positive global manufacturing data showing activity expanded in January by its fastest pace in eight months driven by improvement in the Us, Brazil, India, Germany, and Japan. Moreover, new manufacturing orders expanded for the first time in seven months suggesting growth could gain further traction ahead. In industry news, Norsk Hydro said the long-term viability of its Kurri Kurri primary aluminum smelter in Australia remains challenged by ...

What is this publication about?
Analysis on the spot. A daily executive analysis of the most relevant daily aluminum market news and aluminum price developments, and their impact on the aluminum industry and aluminum price outlook. We include daily price data in the LME and SHFE.


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HARBOR Aluminum Alert:
Canceled warrants up strongly in China; market confidence rising 		  3-Feb-2012

Aluminum LME 3M prices closed the session up 2.4% or $52 per mton (2.4 cent/lb) at $2,248 per mton (102.0 cent/lb). Prices bounced along with the rest of the base metals complex in a context of better than expected US employment data and the Fear/VIX index falling to fresh six-month lows of 16.1 (from 23 at the start of the year). Prices edged higher as funds probably added new long positions after having taken profits yesterday...

What is this publication about?
Get the intelligence as it is generated. Get the latest analysis on breakthrough developments in the aluminum industry around the globe and how that will shape the outlook. This is one of the most viewed reports by our clients.


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