> Agenda
Monday, June 11
| 3:00 pm | Registration Opens | ||
4:00 
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Special Workshops
OPTION 1. Aluminum's Key Industry Metrics and How to Read Them Jorge Vazquez, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Managing Director Jesus Villegas, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Vice President Expect to better understand what are the key drivers of aluminum demand, output, industry costs, inventories, speculation, the LME and SHFE, prices, regional premiums, and conversion cost structure. You will also learn details as to how the data is built, where to find it and how to read it. Sign up for our 90 minute special workshop on Aluminum’s Key Industry Metrics and How to Read Them which will be presented by our own Managing Director and Founder, Jorge Vazquez prior to the official conference. Your reading of the aluminum industry will be considerably enhanced after this session. This workshop is included in your registration fee and will take place in The Westin Michigan Avenue (Conference venue) on June the 11th, 2012 from 4:00 to 5:30 pm. *Please select this free workshop in your registration form to enroll. OPTION 2. Key Aluminum Risk Management Concepts Paul Smith, Mobius Risk Group LLC, Chief Risk Officer Expect to enhance your understanding of how to define, measure and manage price risk in the aluminum market. Learn the concepts and tools from Paul Smith, Chief Risk Officer of Mobius Risk Group. Expect to bring home concepts and ideas that will produce value to your company’s bottom line. This workshop is included in your registration fee and will take place in the Westin Michigan Avenue (Conference venue) on June the 11th, 2012 from 4:00 to 5:30 pm. *Please select this free workshop in your registration form to enroll. Welcome Networking Cocktail & Music! |
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| 6:00 |
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Tuesday, June 12
| 7:00 am | Breakfast | ||
| 7:45 | Opening Remarks Jorge Vazquez Sr., HARBOR Intelligence, President & Chief Economist |
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| > SESSION 1 (Special Focus) Aluminum Industry Hot Topics and the Price/Premium Outlook The aluminum market undergoes constant change. Underlying industry fundamentals such as demographic dynamics, income growth, raw materials availability and technology are shaped by the economic cycle, regional macroeconomic events, speculative flow, trade strategies and government policy. In this session, some of the world’s best aluminum market analysts will give you an update on the dominant factors that shape the aluminum market outlook, and will share their view of where aluminum prices are headed in 2012-2013. Moderated by: Gerardo Cruz, Coca-Cola KOF (Latam), Corporate Finance Director |
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| 7:50 |
What are Demographics, Sustainability, and The Economic Cycle Signaling for the Aluminum Market in 2012-2015 Jorge Vazquez, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Managing Director |
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| 8:15 |
European Demand Crisis, the Global Aluminum Market and Price Outlook 2012-2015 Ed Meir, INTL FC Stone, Senior Metals Analyst |
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| 8:35 |
Financing Deals, LME Inventory Concentration and Speculative Flows Effects on the Aluminum Price Outlook Daniel Brebner, Deutsche Bank, Global Head of Metals Research |
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| 8:55 |
New Tool for Price Risk Management: The COMEX MW U.S. Transaction Premium Swap Future
Julie Winkler, CME Group, Managing Director Research & Product Development |
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| 9:20 |
Q&A |
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| 9:45 | Refreshment Break | ||
| > SESSION 2
Key Demand Drivers Outlook Data shows that aluminum demand is the main determinant for output and prices. Knowing what to expect from the demand side of the equation is essential for business and hedging/trade strategy. Our guest speakers will talk about the booming usage of aluminum in the transportation sector, why it is a structural change and how does it impact the overall aluminum market outlook. Speakers will also talk about aluminum market key issues in North America, Brazil, China, and Europe. They will explore macro risks, key sectors that will drive marginal growth for aluminum, and the supply challenges some aluminum producers will face. Moderated by: Ron Knapp, International Aluminium Institute, Secretary General |
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| 10:00 |
Aluminum’s Booming Demand in the Transportation Sector: A Game Changer
Erwin Mayr, Novelis, Chief Strategy and Commercial Officer |
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| 10:25 |
Brazil's Booming Demand and Serious Supply Side Challenges: Shortages ahead? Luis Jorge Nunes, Aluminio Brasileiro S.A. (Albras), CEO |
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| 10:45 |
North America’s 2012-2013 Demand Outlook for Cars, Construction and Cans: The New Engine of Growth For the Developed World? Lloyd O’Carroll, Davenport & Co, Senior Vice President of Research |
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| 11:10 |
China's Interaction with the Global Aluminum Market - Where it Matters
Jim Lennon, Macquarie Bank, Head of Commodities Research |
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| 11:35 |
Q&A |
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| 12:00 |
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| > SESSION 3 Aluminum Output Expansions and Cost Structure Outlook Aluminum production continues to suffer from poor economics. More than 50% of utilized capacity in China is underwater, while at least 25% of Western World capacity is losing money. Europe is closing capacity, Latin America’s aluminum output is at a 10 year low, and China and India are producing less than expected. This session will focus on analyzing the latest economics of the smelting industry, energy and raw materials costs outlook, the likelihood of capacity closures per region and company, latest detailed intelligence on capacity expansions by project and a deep analysis of China’s Xinjiang and India’s ambitious, but challenging expansion plans. This session is strategic for those with exposure to the aluminum upstream industry and for consumers who want to better understand current issues and challenges on the supply side of the equation. Moderated by: Tina Allagh, Platts Metals Group, Managing Editor |
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| 2:00 |
Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Dynamics Update, Raw Materials Inflation and Expected Winners and Losers Julio Moreno, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Aluminum Raw Materials Senior Analyst |
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| 2:30 |
Global Aluminum Smelting Expansion Outlook 2012-2015 Update: Who will and who will not deliver
Jesus Villegas, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Vice President |
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| 2:55 |
Q&A |
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| 3:05 | Refreshment Break | ||
| > SESSION 4 Ingot/Billet Premiums and FRP Conversion Costs The session will focus on the aluminum downstream industry by analyzing mill expansions, cost inflation, demand dynamics, availability risks and trade flows. Expect to have a clear understanding of the ingot/billet premium outlook per region for 2012-2013 and expected conversion cost trends for aluminum rolled products like cansheet, sheet, plate and foil. This session will complete the entire price exposure equation that aluminum consumers have. Moderated by: Tina Allagh, Platts Metals Group, Managing Editor |
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| 3:20 |
Ingot/Billet Availability and the Regional Premium Outlook2012-2013 (Midwest, Mexico, Brazil, Europe and GCC) Jorge Vazquez, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Managing Director |
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| 3:45 |
FRP Supply/Demand Dynamics and Expected Effects on Sheet, Plate & Foil Conversion Prices Jesus Villegas, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Vice President |
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| 4:10 |
Q&A |
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| 4:30 |
End of Day - Networking Drinks |
Wednesday, June 13
| 7:00 am | Breakfast |
| > SESSION 5A (Special focus) Scrap Aluminum Market Tightness, Shrinking Spreads and Outlook Scrap tightness remains. Hoarding is more frequently seen as holders of scrap wait for higher prices and semi aluminum producers are aggressively increasing their intake of scrap in their metal mix. The spreads between scrap and secondary alloys and between secondary alloys and prime are unusually shrinking. Meanwhile, China’s appetite for scrap continues to grow as the import arbitrage window widens. Intra and intercontinental trade continue to grow. Structural changes are occurring with respect to scrap trade and mill localization. Expect candid talk and views. Moderated by: Marc Schupan, Schupan & Sons, CEO |
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| 8:00 |
Novelis’ Strategic Plan to Increase Scrap Consumption to 80% of Mix by 2020 Derek Prichett, Novelis, Vice President Global Recycling |
| 8:20 |
North America’s Aluminum Scrap Supply Dynamics and Trade Flows Garey Rittenhouse, PSC Metals, Vice President Non-Ferrous Trading |
| 8:40 |
What is Really Driving Scrap Prices: Effects of Demand and Mill Localization Bobby David, B. David and Co LLC, President |
| 9:00 |
Aluminum Scrap vs Automotive Alloys Spread Dynamics and Price Outlook 2012-2013 Gerardo Solorio, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Analyst Aluminum Intelligence |
| 9:20 |
Q&A |
| 9:40 |
Refreshment Break |
| > SESSION 5B (Workshop designed for executives of smelting companies) Alumina/Bauxite Sourcing & Casthouse Outlook This session is specially designed for purchasing and sales executives of smelting companies. In the first half of the session, expect the latest intelligence on bauxite mining and alumina refining cost structures and curves, trade flows and contract negotiations. Bauxite mining project challenges and contract and spot price outlook will also be discussed. On the second half of the session, we will focus on global and regional demand trends and outlook for billet, slabs and foundry alloys, trade flows and how smelters are adding value by adjusting their casthouse portfolios. Expect to leave with a better understanding of demand and supply casthouse dynamics and the outlook for 2012-2013. |
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| 8:00 am |
The Alumina/Bauxite Supply Update, Trade Flows & Price Outlook 2012-2013 Julio Moreno, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Senior Raw Materials Intelligence |
| 9:00 |
Casthouse Products Outlook 2012-2013: Demand, Trade Flows and Premiums Jesus Villegas, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Vice President |
| 9:20 | Q&A |
| 9:40 | Refreshment Break - End of Workshop |
| > SESSION 6 (Strategy focus) Update on Best Aluminum Sourcing and Hedging Practices You really don't want to miss this one. This session makes the conference unique and special. Upgrade your sourcing intelligence and practices. Increase your perception of price value. Enhance your hedging toolbox. Polish your hedging strategies. Bring present and future $ value back home. Your company will surely appreciate it and you are going to want to come back to our 2013 Outlook Summit. Moderated by: Tim Weiner, MillerCoors, Global Risk Manager Commodities |
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| 10:00 |
Innovative Sourcing Strategies for Aluminum Purchases (update) Lisa Reisman, MetalMiner, Managing Director US |
| 10:20 |
Hedging Strategies that Reduce Risk and Produce Value (update) Paul Smith, Mobius Risk Group LLC, Chief Risk Officer |
| 10:40 |
Aluminum Price Value Analysis and Forecasts: Views, Risks & Hedging Strategies Jorge Vazquez, HARBOR Aluminum Intelligence Unit, Managing Director |
| 11:00 |
Q&A |
| 11:15 |
Conclusions and Takeaways |